Will Clinton win the nomination?
Pollsters and Intrade failed to predict the Clinton NH victory. What can we infer may happen next? Intrade has Clinton back at 62 and Obama at 40. Given the recent flip-flops, the race is obviously very close. But remember that Clinton led for a long time. Traders are uncertain but leaning toward Clinton.
My take: I suspect that Clinton’s marginally greater experience, name recognition, pull in the party, and campaign organization and backing will in the end secure her the nomination.
Either way, is there a dime’s worth of difference between Clinton and Obama? Yes, there are differences, but they are not worth exploring at this time. It’s far more important to point out the follies of their positions!
The Rep. side remains close. Here everyone got it right as McCain won. Paul’s showing seems to have disappointed the market as he has now fallen below 3.
Will Paul’s message get through and cause a revolution of sorts?
My take: Not anytime soon. The American system is stable. When social strains on Americans become large enough, they are absorbed into the political system. That system and American society have a buffered pH. They absorb shocks and stabilize. The American people’s ethic and productivity accomplish this and keep the country going.
Again, it is terribly important to keep pointing out the follies of the positions of the leading Republicans as Paul’s campaign is doing.
At the moment, most Americans are comfortable enough that they are not receptive to the Paul or libertarian message. But that message has made considerable headway among some segments of our society that are more open-minded and less set in their ways.
It is an important long-term project to keep clarifying, deepening, refining, and exposing the libertarian message. Big, centralized, overbearing, government geared to private interests is an open and festering wound that is poisoning America.
8:43 am on January 9, 2008
