The betting (Predictit) is that the Democrats will maintain control of the House. This outcome sells at 72 cents at present. Republican control sells at only 31 cents.
There are many pro-Republican articles saying that the impeachment is costing the Democrats votes in Trump-type districts, but the betting market doesn’t show this at all.
Impeachment by the Democrats grows out of their electoral strategy. It continues the strategy they began in 2016, a strategy that’s ongoing. The Democratic strategy has two sides, of which one is to offer their program of policies and the other is to negativize Trump. The two sides are related. Every negative attached to Trump has a counterpart in a Democratic alternative that they sell as positive. Furthermore, when Trump attacks them directly or attacks their supporters in government and media, they counterattack with the same set of negative depictions of Trump.
Broadly speaking, the Democrats paint Trump as un-American, destructive of America and of American values. This tactic is then elaborated into specifics.
Predictit markets show Trump a big winner over Biden, if he’s nominated. At the same time, it’s saying that his coattails won’t shift control of the House. So far, Republicans and Trump have not openly attacked House Democrats, and Predictit values are unlikely fully to reflect quieter Republican efforts beneath the public radar. Time will tell.
9:03 am on December 14, 2019
