In the U.S. vs. Syria war, round 1 or plan A has ended. The rebels didn’t dislodge the government. Round 2, the fallback position or plan B, is for the U.S. to engineer Syria’s breakup into pieces. Trump and the Congress are both behind plan B: balkanization of Syria
The fight against ISIS is over. That clouded the real U.S. objective, which is shown by Congressional appropriations:
“…the gargantuan US military budget for 2019 is to include $300 million for the training and equipping of the SDF, Washington’s proxy ground force in Syria, in addition to $250 million to fund the ‘border security force’ in the country that’s been mooted.”
The U.S. objective is proven also by the U.S. forces in Syria that are embedded with anti-Syrian forces. It’s shown too by the reportedly large scale destruction of Russian mercenary forces in the past week by U.S. air power.
“All this, it’s worth recalling, is being undertaken in clear violation of Syria’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is the very epitome of might is right, redolent of that which sustained the Roman Empire.”
The war is being joined near Deir-ez-Zor, adjacent to oil fields held by rebel forces. It’s not over. Pro-Assad forces are massing, we are told. There is huge uncertainty concerning the details of the first battle, but it is certain that the U.S. massively bombarded the pro-Assad side for some 3 hours.
Any renewed battle raises any number of questions. Will Russia employ its air power to protect such an attack or even to bombard opponent positions? Otherwise, any attack will again be exposed to U.S. air power. Will the deconfliction apparatus be used or ignored? Will attacking forces adopt a different strategy? Will Russia and the U.S. come face to face in ground and aerial combat? How close to war can these two sides come in such a situation? How far are Trump and Putin willing to go?
“Washington intends to separate a large part of Syria and create an autonomy there with the support of the Kurds, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.” The strategy is similar to that used to break Yugoslavia apart, and to use ethnic divisions to accomplish it.
Russia recognizes clearly the U.S. intent and the flouting of any semblance of international law by the U.S., based upon its use of military power. Russia has made no public counter-threat. She has downplayed the recent slaughter of its mercenaries. How far will Russia go to restore Assad’s lost territory to his control? What’s the minimum that Putin will do for Assad while still achieving Russia’s own objectives in Syria? How far will Iran go to bolster its Syrian ally and confront the U.S.? What means short of direct military confrontations with the U.S. might the pro-Assad forces devise in order to circumvent U.S. power and achieve their objectives?
More than ever, the U.S. is at war with Syria. Round 2 has begun. Trump now “owns” this war. He has signed on to its prosecution, which is aimed at subverting Iran. With its bombing, Israel is playing its part in this endeavor on the anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah front. Trump is all in for Saudi Arabia. The U.S. is pointing war’s arrows at both Russia and Iran.
9:11 am on February 16, 2018
