Switch Odds Site from Predictit

It’s time to switch to a better odds-reporting web site than Predictit. We’ll label it EBO, short for Election Betting Odds. It aggregates odds from two different sites, Predictit and Betfair (whose reports are too technical for the average person to grasp quickly). It also has charts. The odds update every 5 minutes.

Sanders is at 39.5% chance of winning and Bloomberg has rallied strongly to 23.8% chance. Buttigieg is third at 11.% percent.

The charts show that Sanders and Bloomberg both have pulled away from the rest of the field, and they’ve moved up together, until just recently when Bloomberg has outpaced Sanders.

The charts allow you to see the dramatic rises, peaks and plunges of several candidates. Warren peaked around October 7 to October 13. What did she do or say or what was revealed about her that caused this and the subsequent waterfall decline? The October debate coincided with her decline and fall. Looking back, we can see that Harris was never a serious contender. She was on a steady decline and only in July did she have a sharp but brief rise and fall. The rise came after the late-June debate and lasted only 10 days.

Sanders is at 75.8% in NH and Buttigieg is second at 17.2%. The state races are only from Predictit, with some small adjustments made by EBO to produce more accurate odds.

These betting markets involve real money and prices. They are not odds set by bookies.

We thank Peter Collins for alerting us to this site.


8:33 am on February 11, 2020