Sanders’ Nomination Likelihood Falls

The New Hampshire primary is over, and Sanders scored a narrow win over Buttigieg. Sanders received far fewer votes than in his 2016 win. Young voter turnout was below par, and exit polls suggest Sanders’ socialist positions didn’t grab NH Democratic voters en masse. The NH results are indecisive for who will be nominated.

Consequently, Sanders declined quite sharply. On EBO (Election Betting Odds), Sanders fell to just 33%, now a 2-1 favorite. Bloomberg is second at 25.5%, 3-1. Continuing mixed results like these will result in Sanders not having enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot, because Democrats do not have winner-take-all primaries. Then the convention will likely be open to choose anyone.

One day, one election, and Sanders no longer looks like a shoo-in. Nevada (Feb. 22) and South Carolina (Feb. 29) are next, followed by Super Tuesday (March 3). At this time, Sanders maintains a state-by-state betting favorite. The betting markets’ forecast of a Sanders’ win remains intact, but it’s a lot less strong than yesterday.


9:17 am on February 12, 2020