This blog is mostly about the measurement of excess deaths from COVID-19. The bottom line is that the crude measures one encounters are likely to be overstated by amounts like 54-63%. In looking at this technical question, the paper I found with sophisticated measures also contains this remarkable and truly sad statement: “Third, and relatedly, our analysis suggests that the UK’s lockdown has had a net positive impact on mortalities. That is to say, it resulted in more, not less, deaths. Intuitively, this may be due to the unintended consequences of the lockdown (for example, a substantial reduction in the … Continue reading Overstatement of Excess Deaths from COVID-19