Iran Deal Will Go Through

Pessimism is being expressed in some quarters that the Senate will sabotage the Iran deal, and that this will lead to war between the U.S. and Iran under the next president. Neither of these is going to happen. Why not? Many reasons. (1) The deal will be finalized and the details filled in by the next deadline. That’s clear because there already is a lot of specificity in the action plan that’s on the White House web site. (2) The states behind this deal who negotiated it are major powers: China, France, Russia, the U.S., the U.K., and Germany. (3) The EU and the UN are behind the agreement. (4) It is actually a good deal for both sides. (5) Hillary Clinton has already voiced strong support for the deal. (6) Initial polls show Americans support the deal. (7) There is no cause of war with Iran, now or two years from now. (8) These particular negotiations have been going on since the initial 2013 agreement, but proposals go back as far as 2003. There is history supporting the quest and there is momentum. (9) Attempts to sabotage the deal at this late date appear and are retrogressive. Such attempts have no alternative agenda except confrontation and war.

In the practical world of politics, Netanyahu, AIPAC, Adelson and the American senators that they influence, control or have bought can make some waves. But Obama can go over their heads to the American public. He can out-maneuver them by certain legal avenues. He can paint them as the mindless conservatives that they are, out of touch with reality, and destructive. He can sell the deal on its merits, if he chooses to. If he wants to, Obama can tear this group of evil nitwits into little pieces, which is exactly what they deserve. It will be more difficult for Obama to deal with a bi-partisan stop-the-deal effort should one get off the ground and start to attract Democrats. However, Democrats are going to avoid signing on because of the huge temptation to paint Republicans as hidebound conservatives and worse who are against progress in foreign policy. Leadership from Obama and Hillary Clinton can rally them around the pro-deal cause.

If Obama does not lead on this issue, or vacillates, or fails to do so by incompetence, or tries to lead from behind, then he and America could lose. This is a possibility. But with politicians around the world sounding almost like statesmen in supporting an agreement, he’d have to be mind-boggling incompetent to blow this one. He’s got support coming out of the woodwork to use against the retrograde and backward 47.

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6:18 pm on April 3, 2015