Prediction markets failed to call Brexit and Trump, sullying an otherwise good record and reminding us that no prediction method will be right all the time.
On Predictit, Kamala Harris has moved to #1 among Democrats at 25 cents. The maximum certainty of victory is $1, so she’s far from “in”. The lowest possible is $0.00.
Biden is #2 at 17 cents. Sanders is at 16 cents. Beto has fallen back to 13 cents, so he looks to have fizzled out. Warren remains mired at 11 cents. She looks out of it too.
The contest right now is between Harris and Biden, even though Biden hasn’t said he’d run. If and when he goes for it, his price will go up because the announcement will resolve uncertainty. The market anticipates he will run, but it still has doubts.
1:55 pm on January 28, 2019
