Giuliani has peaked

Thompson is out of the race.

Giuliani has now peaked out. McCain has surged back and passed him to take the #1 spot.

Romney’s steady increases have petered out for now.

Huckabee has peaked, with Iowa his high point.

Paul is steady and consolidating, readying a fresh advance that will take him past Huckabee.

The race is actually very tight, given the volatility of politics.

The preceding comments interpret the Intrade contracts for the Republican presidential nomination.

These fluctuations, the negatives of the frontrunners, and the closeness of the race tell me that Paul has a real chance of capturing the heart of the Republican voter while also presenting a distinct challenge to Clinton.

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4:43 pm on January 3, 2008