On this date, election betting odds predict that Biden will win in November and that Democrats will win both the House and Senate. Biden is at 49.4%, Trump’s at 44.8%.
Trump fell and Biden rose sharply in the first week of March. That has to do with recession odds (see below). In the past few days, Trump fell again, and that has to do with the widespread disorder.
The House has been predicted to be safely in Democrats’ hands since early 2019, and Democrats are now way ahead there. The chance of their winning is currently 80.7%.
The Senate was seen to be safely Republican until the first week in March. Then, like Trump, the odds fell steeply. At this time, Democrats have the lead at 51.4%.
The Electoral College today has Biden winning: 332-206.
Why did Republicans fall so steeply in the first week of March? One factor is recession. Past research shows that recession influences election results.
Prior to March 6, the odds of recession had been steadily increasing beginning on January 25 from a low of near 16%. By March 6, the odds were just over 50% that a recession would occur. Those odds had been rising sharply since Feb. 23. The steep fall of the Republicans coincides with the point at which recession became more likely than non-recession. That point is March 6 or very near it. After March 6, the odds of recession continue rising steeply for the rest of the month. Now at 98.2%, the betting is that recession is all but certain.
As the stock market began falling in late February, the odds of recession rose. It will take more study to attempt to determine how much of this decline and the concurrent political shifts owe to the virus itself, to the policies adopted to counter its effects and to the monetary situation having reached a point of high stress and termination.
The stock market has risen since late March and regained much of its lost ground. Concurrently, Trump had stabilized in a winning though less commanding position. Then this past week came a new shock. The riots and looting have started a new series of actions and reactions that have recently shifted the odds against him.
The countdown to the elections has 5 months to go. Many things can and will happen.
9:21 am on June 5, 2020
