I respect prediction markets, while understanding that their predictions can change as events unfold. At present, the Iowa Election Market has a Democratic victory priced at 66 cents and a Republican victory priced at 34 cents. A graph is here.

Betting for a Democratic victory costs 66 cents and you get back $1 if you are right; you get your stake of 66 cents back plus a profit of 34 cents. Betting for a Republican victory costs 34 cents and you get back $1 if you are right; this is your initial 34 cent stake plus 66 cents profit. The odds of a Democratic win are said to be “2 to 1 on”. Democrats are the odds on favorite at this time. This is sometimes expressed by saying 1 for 2 odds, meaning you win 34 cents for each 66 cents ventured if you win.

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