Sanders is currently at 42 cents and Biden at 33 cents on Predictit. Biden showed remarkable strength for quite awhile, despite all his negatives. But now that Sanders is surging, Biden is fading away. Moreover, he’s burying his own candidacy. His latest move is an effort to get Obama’s support, since Obama is against Sanders, but has not endorsed anyone, especially Biden.
Biden has publicly offered Obama a seat on the Supreme Court. Now that’s a quid pro quo. To top that off, he wants Michelle Obama to be his vice-president. This harms his candidacy because of the depth of anti-Obama feeling in the country among non-Democrats, no matter how much it may appeal to Democrat emotions. Besides, it looks like what it is, a clumsy, even desperate, attempt to stem his downtrend among Democrats. At a minimum, this is not a well-thought out move. Michelle Obama cannot be in any way regarded as a serious candidate to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. And anti-Barack voters will rise from their deathbeds to prevent him from being on the Supreme Court.
The conclusion from this is that Biden won’t be nominated. It’s still a bit too early to say this with great confidence, but that is how it looks at this time. If Biden falls below the 30 cent mark, that will just about clinch his defeat.
12:32 pm on January 29, 2020
