From Professor Ward Ciac:
“Iowa 40% dems, 40% reps, 20% indies
RP was polling about 5% of reps, 30% indies.
Say half the 20% indies vote rep, half vote dem.
(40 * .05 + 10 * .30))/ 50 = 10.0% in Iowa (he got it)
“New Hampshire 40% indie, say 30% dems and 30% reps.
RP polling about 8% of reps in NH, say polling at 30% for indies.
Say half the 40% indies vote rep, half vote dem.
(30 * .08 + 20 * .30))/ 50 = 16.8% in NH.”
