How a December 2024 Congressional Report Predicted the Labor Shortages, Food Price Spikes, and Construction Collapse We’re Seeing Today

In my four decades of emergency management and disaster response, I’ve learned one critical lesson: when multiple expert analyses point to the same catastrophic outcome, you don’t wait for the disaster to hit before you start planning. You act on the data.

In December 2024, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee released a report titled “Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy.” It wasn’t subtle. It wasn’t hedging. It laid out, in precise detail, what would happen if the incoming Trump administration followed through on its promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

Now, nearly a year into the administration, we’re watching those predictions materialize in real time. Construction employment is dropping where it should be growing. Agricultural payrolls are collapsing. Food prices are climbing. And Trump’s own Labor Department has quietly admitted what the data showed all along: we’re heading toward “supply shock-induced food shortages.” World’s Greatest... London, Jack Check Amazon for Pricing.

This isn’t partisan commentary. This is disaster response 101: recognize the warning signs, track the data, and sound the alarm before the cascade becomes unstoppable.

What the Report Said

The Joint Economic Committee report, released by Democratic committee members on December 12, 2024, compiled analysis from multiple nonpartisan sources: the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Congressional Budget Office, the American Immigration Council, and the Brookings Institution.

Yes, it came from Democrats. But the data didn’t.

The report’s core findings were stark:

If 8.3 million undocumented immigrants were deported:

• GDP would drop 7.4% by 2028
• Employment would fall 7% by 2028
• The economy would see zero growth during Trump’s entire second term
• This would exceed the 4.3% GDP contraction of the Great Recession

Even with “only” 1.3 million deportations:

• GDP would still drop 1.2%
• Employment would fall 1.1%
• Prices would rise 1.5%

Key industry impacts:

• Construction: Loss of up to 1.5 million workers (25% of the workforce)
• Agriculture: Loss of up to 225,000 workers (42% of crop farmworkers)
• Hospitality: Loss of 1 million workers
• Manufacturing: Loss of 870,000 workers
• Transportation: Loss of 461,000 workers

The complementary jobs effect:

• For every 500,000 immigrants removed from the labor force, 44,000 U.S.-born workers would lose their jobs

The report’s analysis was clear: these aren’t jobs that U.S.-born workers are waiting to fill. They’re jobs that exist in a complex economic ecosystem where immigrant workers and U.S.-born workers complement each other, not compete.

The Nonpartisan Data Backing It Up

This wasn’t political spin. The sources behind the report’s findings are among the most respected in economic analysis:

Peterson Institute for International Economics – A nonpartisan think tank that has advised administrations of both parties. Their modeling showed that deporting 8.3 million people would also drive prices up by 9.1% by 2028.

Congressional Budget Office – The official, nonpartisan scorekeeper for Congress. They estimated that recent immigration could add $8.9 trillion to GDP over the next decade while reducing the deficit by $900 billion.

American Immigration Council – A nonpartisan research and advocacy organization that has documented immigration’s economic impact for decades.

Brookings Institution – Their research showed that foreign-born people pay on average $1,300 more in annual taxes than they receive in government services, and over a lifetime pay $237,000 more in taxes than they receive in benefits.

These aren’t partisan advocacy groups. These are the institutions Congress, businesses, and policymakers rely on for objective economic analysis.

What’s Actually Happening Now

Here’s where my disaster response training kicks in: when you see the early warning indicators start flashing, you don’t wait for confirmation. The data from 2025 shows the JEC report wasn’t just accurate—it was conservative. Greatest Works of Will... Shakespeare, William Check Amazon for Pricing.

Construction Industry – The First Domino

The construction industry entered 2025 with 248,000 unfilled positions and projections that it would need 454,000 additional workers beyond normal hiring just to meet demand. Then the deportations began.

The data by mid-2025:

• The 10 states with the highest concentration of undocumented construction workers saw employment drop 0.1%, while other states grew 1.9%
• California’s total workforce dropped 3.1% from May to June after intensive ICE workplace raids
• 92% of construction firms reported difficulty filling open positions
• Industry experts estimate 23% of construction workers are immigrants, with roughly half undocumented

One construction executive put it bluntly: Single-family and multi-family housing projects could be “paralyzed,” with average 18-month projects stretching to five years due to labor shortages.

This is happening while the U.S. faces a housing shortage of 3.8 million homes. Mass deportations aren’t solving the housing crisis—they’re making it catastrophically worse.

Agriculture – The System is Breaking

The numbers from agriculture are even more alarming:

March to July 2025:

• Agricultural employment dropped by 155,000 workers
• Compare this to the same period in 2024, which saw a 2.2% increase
• That’s not a slowdown—that’s a reversal

Industry specifics:

• 42% of crop farmworkers are undocumented
• In states like Idaho, nearly 90% of dairy workers were born outside the U.S.
• The hospitality industry saw labor force growth slow from 1.5% in June 2024 to just 0.2% in June 2025

Food Prices – Already Rising

Fresh vegetable prices increased 2% from April to July 2025. Meat prices rose 1.9% in the same period. The Peterson Institute projects these increases could hit 10% if deportations continue at current rates.

Studies show that even a 10% decrease in the agricultural workforce can lead to a 4.2% drop in fruit and vegetable production. We’re looking at potentially losing 42% of the crop workforce.

Trump’s Own Administration Admits It

Here’s the part that should alarm everyone, regardless of political affiliation.

On October 2, 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor filed an emergency rule change in the Federal Register. Buried in the regulatory language was a stunning admission: “the current and imminent labor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens, increased enforcement of existing immigration law, and global competitiveness pressures… presents a sufficient risk of supply shock-induced food shortages to justify immediate implementation” of the rule.

The Labor Department went on to state that the lack of workers “results in significant disruptions to production costs and threatens the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers.”

They admitted what the data showed: higher wage rates for H-2A visa holders “have not resulted in a meaningful increase in new entrants of U.S. workers to temporary or seasonal agricultural jobs.”

Translation: Americans aren’t lining up to do this work, even with higher pay.

The same filing noted that agricultural work “remains physically demanding, often takes place in remote locations, carries elevated safety and health risks relative to most U.S. occupations, and offers relatively low compensation.” Their experience with the H-2A visa program demonstrates “a persistent and systemic lack of sufficient numbers of qualified, eligible and interested American workers to perform the kinds of work that agricultural employers demand.”

This directly contradicts Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ claim from July 2025 that deportations would move the workforce toward “100% American participation.” Her own Labor Department said it’s not happening.

The Cascading Failure

In disaster response, we talk about “cascading failures”—when one system failure triggers others in a chain reaction. That’s what we’re watching happen to the U.S. economy.

The cascade looks like this:

1. Labor Shortage: Deportations remove workers from construction, agriculture, food processing, and hospitality.
2. Production Slowdown: Without enough workers, construction projects stall, crops go unharvested, food processing slows, and restaurants can’t operate at full capacity.
3. Supply Reduction: Fewer homes get built, less food reaches the market, and services become scarce.
4. Price Increases: Reduced supply drives up costs for housing, food, and services.
5. Complementary Job Losses: Construction managers aren’t needed when there aren’t enough laborers to build. Restaurant servers aren’t needed when there aren’t enough cooks and dishwashers. For every 500,000 immigrants removed from the labor force, 44,000 U.S.-born workers lose their jobs.
6. Reduced Consumer Spending: Millions of deported workers were also consumers. Their absence reduces demand for goods and services, causing further job losses.
7. Economic Contraction: GDP shrinks, tax revenues fall, deficits grow.

This isn’t theory. This is what the data from 2025 is showing. And we’re only seven months in.

The Jobs Americans “Won’t Do” – Let’s Be Honest

There’s a persistent myth that needs to be addressed directly: the idea that deporting immigrant workers will open up jobs for U.S. citizens who are supposedly waiting for these opportunities.

The data says otherwise. The Sherlock Holmes Co... Sir Arthur Conan Doyle Best Price: $42.97 Buy New $29.99 (as of 06:00 UTC - Details)

The construction industry has faced a labor shortage since the mid-2000s. If U.S.-born workers were eager to fill these positions, they would have done so already. The median age of construction workers is now 42-47 years old. The industry is aging out, not recruiting in.

In agriculture, 42% of crop farmworkers are undocumented, and the Labor Department has documented “a persistent and systemic lack” of U.S. workers willing to do this work. These are jobs that require manual labor in extreme weather, offer relatively low pay, and often take place in remote locations.

This isn’t about American workers being lazy or unwilling to work hard. It’s about the reality of modern labor markets. These jobs exist in sectors where the work is physically demanding, the conditions are difficult, and the pay—while essential—doesn’t attract sufficient numbers of U.S.-born workers.

The economic research confirms this. Undocumented workers and U.S.-born workers largely hold complementary jobs, not competing ones. Construction laborers enable construction managers. Farm workers enable farm supervisors. Dishwashers enable restaurant servers. Remove one part of the system, and the whole operation shrinks.

The Cost We’re Not Talking About

Beyond the economic damage, we need to acknowledge the sheer cost of the deportation operation itself.

The American Immigration Council estimated the cost at $88 billion per year—roughly four times NASA’s entire budget. Over ten years, estimates range from $350 billion to $886 billion.

To put this in perspective: for the price of one year of mass deportations, we could build 2.9 million new homes or send 8.9 million people to in-state public colleges.

Instead, we’re spending that money to remove workers from an economy that desperately needs them, while simultaneously driving up costs for every American through labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.

Where This Goes From Here

The Peterson Institute’s projections give us two scenarios for how this plays out:

Scenario 1: “Limited” Deportations (1.3 million people)

• GDP drops 1.2% by 2028
• Employment falls 1.1%
• Prices rise 1.5%
• Economic growth significantly slowed

Scenario 2: Aggressive Deportations (8.3 million people)

• GDP drops 7.4% by 2028
• Employment falls 7%
• Prices rise 9.1%
• Zero economic growth during Trump’s entire second term
• Economic contraction worse than the Great Recession

Based on the Trump administration’s stated goal of 1 million deportations per year, we’re tracking closer to Scenario 2.

The Congressional Budget Office projected in March 2025 that civilian employment would grow by 4.2 million people between 2025 and 2029. Updated analyses from the Economic Policy Institute suggest that with continued deportations at this pace, employment would actually fall in absolute terms by 2029—a job loss of about 5.9 million.

That would be “a historically large and persistent drop in employment, unprecedented outside of the worst recessions in U.S. history.”

Read the Whole Article