When Is The Crash Going To Happen?

Submitted by Mark Spitznagel via Pensions & Investments, Since the question “when is the crash going to happen?” is always asked, we thought it particularly timely to update the research we have done on the topic. Timing a crash can be a fool’s errand, and fortunately such efforts are largely irrelevant if you are tail hedging (though they are quite relevant if you aren’t). When tail hedging efficiently, the extreme asymmetries in payoffs, by definition, removes any need to time the top. But this doesn’t mean that exercises in timing are without merit. As we showed in previous research, without … Continue reading When Is The Crash Going To Happen?