Should I Buy Gold at Its All-Time High?

Recently by Simon Black: If You Haven't Bought Any Gold Yet…

There’s one question that I’ve been seeing over and over for the last several weeks as the price of gold has taken out its all-time highs and continued a nearly uninterrupted ascent: Should I buy gold now?

It’s understandable, especially for people who don’t own precious metals yet. Nobody wants to be the sucker who buys gold at the top, only to watch it crater back to $1200 or below. But here’s some food for thought…

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The US dollar is shattering historic lows against currencies like the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Singapore dollar. Any currency that isn’t a complete disaster is now being viewed as a safe haven. And the mainstream world is now, finally, waking up to the reality that the United States might actually default.

Never mind that the government has been insolvent for years and the evidence of such has been widely available to anyone willing to look at basic facts. Literally, only in the last week have people finally began to consider the possibility of a US default.

A Gift to My Children:... Rogers, Jim Best Price: $1.68 Buy New $6.73 (as of 02:10 UTC - Details)

Here in Europe, the situation is arguably even worse. No one is being shy about a default in Greece – it’s discussed openly now by policymakers, and major financial institutions are preparing for a restructuring. And with its public debt more than 120% of GDP, Italy will not be far behind.

Governments no longer have the benefit of operating behind a curtain; their financial imprudence and technical insolvencies are now under the spotlight for all to see… and confidence is fading quickly.

The more people lose confidence in the dollar and euro, the more they look for alternatives. Large institutions and money mangers collectively control trillions of dollars within the financial system. Unallocated capital – funds held as cash and not being actively invested at the moment – must be held somehow, somewhere.

This is the chief reason why so many smaller currencies are surging. Compared to the dollar and euro, the Swiss franc looks incredibly safe, and money managers have a much higher degree of confidence that their Swiss bonds will be repaid than they have in the US or eurozone.

The more capital flows into these smaller currencies, the more they’ll appreciate against the dollar and euro. It’s simple matter of supply and demand – increased demand for the Swiss franc coupled with excess supply of US dollars means a stronger franc in US dollar terms.

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