Each summer, Wall Street strategist Byron Wien convenes a meeting of high rollers to discuss the outlook for investment. This year’s meeting brought together fifty individuals, including more than ten billionaires. Their expectations, as reported by CNBC, are gloomy:
They saw the United States in a long-term slow growth environment with the near-term risk of recession quite real, said Wien, in a commentary to Blackstone clients. The Obama administration was viewed as hostile to business and that discouraged both hiring and investment. Companies and entrepreneurs were reluctant to add workers because they didn’t know what their healthcare costs or taxes were going to be.
Add this report to the many similar ones to which my colleagues and I have called attention over the past two years.
Of course, for mainstream macroeconomists, such evidence means nothing. In fact, they hold it in complete contempt because (1) their formal mathematical models do not have a variable called regime uncertainty, and (2) even if they could be persuaded to take this factor into account, the canned data on which they rely — the product of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, for the most part — do not supply them with an official data set for their analysis. What you can’t measure, according to their scientific credo, does not exist. Their de facto motto (of which I have more than once been on the receiving end) is: you’ve got no formal model; you’ve got nothing.