• Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

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    The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age,
    according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the
    field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge
    base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand
    year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and
    then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000
    years.

    Ice cores,
    ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient
    plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern
    of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years,
    separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about
    12,000 years.

    Most of the
    long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows
    a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are
    together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich
    cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000
    year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes
    over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes,
    also known as the earth’s "wobble," which gradually
    rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of
    26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation,
    these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount
    of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce
    the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.

    Elements of
    the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented
    by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed
    further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory
    was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician
    Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious
    journal Science published a landmark paper by John Imbrie,
    James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled "Variations in
    the Earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages," which described
    the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between
    the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns
    of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the
    Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account
    for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich
    theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia
    articles about the Ice Ages.

    In their 1976
    paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate
    forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich
    cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they
    apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends –
    and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning
    of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends,
    because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000
    years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are
    not predicted… the results indicate that the long-term trend over
    the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation
    and cooler climate."

    During the
    1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists
    began promoting the theory that "greenhouse gasses" such
    as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead
    to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of "anthropogenic
    global warming" (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact
    by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW
    has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make
    pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

    The central
    piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is
    the famous "hockey stick" graph which was presented by
    Al Gore in his 2006 film An
    Inconvenient Truth
    . The "hockey stick" graph shows
    an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during
    the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However,
    this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered
    the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and
    the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current
    Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass
    the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

    The main flaw
    in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from
    only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence
    from the past million years – evidence which is essential for
    a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology
    provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for
    the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle
    of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

    In 1999 the
    British journal Nature published the results of data derived
    from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia’s Vostok station
    in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes
    a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and
    other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from
    420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present
    time.

    The graph
    of the Vostok ice core data
    shows that the Ice Age maximums
    and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern,
    the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat
    on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows
    that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature
    changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that
    global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not
    the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing
    global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase
    in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

    The reason
    that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature
    is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm
    water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation,
    or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated
    soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from
    loosing their "fizz," which is a feature of their carbonation,
    or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the
    natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release
    increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

    Because the
    release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in
    the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2
    levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the
    end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should
    already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global
    CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of
    the world’s oceans.

    The Vostok
    ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose
    and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums
    and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years.
    Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures,
    followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the
    same levels which they are at today.

    Today we are
    again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial,
    and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky,
    we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return,
    as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without
    any influence from the effects of AGW.

    The AGW theory
    is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of
    time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the "big picture"
    of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including
    ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate
    that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data
    also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within
    only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic
    Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout
    the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable
    Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere
    uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

    This article
    originally appeared in Pravda.

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