The political axiom is familiar today. Republicans nominate the next in line. So it’s been from Richard Nixon to John McCain.
The next presidential cycle could prove otherwise. The GOP establishment no longer rides herd over today’s elephants. Conservative activists are both exceptionally galvanized and autonomous. It’s a unique mix unseen in decades. And critically, the establishment’s early favorite has an Achilles heel.
Mitt Romney should be the next Republican nominee. No less than 81 percent of Republican "insiders" say that Romney is the "most likely" to challenge Barack Obama in 2012, according to a January National Journal poll.
"If you look at our tradition in the party, our frontrunner should be Mitt Romney," said Charlie Black, who has advised candidates from Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush to McCain. "But I truly believe it’s way too early to tell."
Romney’s vulnerability is one reason it’s too early to tell. Half of all Republicans are "angry" about the healthcare overhaul. Most other Republicans are "displeased," according to a late March CNN poll. And therein lies Romney’s problem.
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Romney signed a universal health care plan as the Massachusetts governor. It too mandated coverage (a central focal point of conservative anger today). Romney has managed flip-flops before. He nearly won the GOP nomination despite his past support for abortion and gay rights. But this is another matter. Romney took trailblazing action on the same issue that most-rallies today’s conservative grassroots. In 2008, John McCain’s primary campaign ran an ad that declared: "Mitt Romney’s state health-care plan is a big-government mandate." GOP rivals will offer that message on steroids in 2012. Politico aptly compared Romney’s problem to Hillary Clinton’s 2002 Iraq war vote.
But if not Romney, then who? The survey of Beltway insiders offered one early picture. Tim Pawlenty placed a distant second (46%). Followed by John Thune (38%) and Haley Barbour (28%). Tied for fifth were Mitch Daniels and Sarah Palin (25%). Of the group, only Palin is widely known by the public. But Palin remains a long shot in 2012. The field is open. And many other Republican dark horses stir.
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The senior man has, however, taken the GOP race since 1968. The "new Nixon" is remembered for his remarkable comeback. But Nixon commanded the field by election year. In spring, among Republicans, Gallup placed Nixon ahead of Nelson Rockefeller by more than a 2-to-1 margin. He was the former vice president and almost-was president. But Nixon’s nomination also heralded the new emerging GOP establishment – more southern, more western, less blue blooded and more blue collar.
Thereafter, the GOP establishment got their man. The seniority rule became more settled (perhaps ironically) with the advent of the first contested, and modern, GOP primary race in 1976. There were setbacks – Reagan losing in Iowa or George W. Bush losing in New Hampshire. But from Gerald Ford to George W. Bush, as Harvard political scientist William Mayer tracked, the Republican who led the final Gallup national poll before the primaries won the nomination.
The rule dulled with McCain but endured. McCain followed the path of Reagan, H.W. Bush and Bob Dole. He was the once-thwarted candidate who earned his turn. And McCain worked for that turn. He was among Bush’s most effective advocates during the 2004 campaign. Then he went from 2006 frontrunner to late-2007 long shot. Mike Huckabee narrowly led McCain in the final national polls before the Iowa caucuses. But McCain soon regained his frontrunner status and won despite the vocal opposition of conservative activists like Rush Limbaugh.
Romney attempted to follow this same game plan. He dropped out in 2008 and soon became a strong advocate for McCain. He is currently campaigning and raising money for 2010 Republican candidates.
The seniority system might still work out for Romney. The GOP establishment still reigns, despite its wounded authority. The Republican Party refused to seriously consider a conservative "purity test" early this year. The result would have excluded moderates from RNC support.
April 30, 2010
