Is the Religious Right Taking Over the Tea Party?

MyType

For over 17,000 Americans taking one of MyType’s psychology surveys, we inserted a question about the Tea Party to reveal the demographics, values, morals and personalities of the movement’s supporters (see the full report). Looking for the defining characteristics of a presumably cohesive party, we instead found the movement in the middle of an identity crisis. According to MyType’s data, devoutly religious conservatives comprise 22.5% of the Tea Party and are its fastest growing segment. They bring with them a fundamentally different set of values, morals and personalities than libertarian supporters, a core group that represent 17% of the party. While the former tend to be morally charged, family-oriented traditionalists, many libertarian supporters are neither religious nor traditional – rather, they are independent, intellectual, and morally permissive. The rising prominence of religious conservatives within the movement, highlighted by recent religious right rhetoric from several prominent figures affiliated with the Tea Party, appears to be driving away libertarians and others. Despite the surge in support from religious conservatives, overall support for the Tea Party is in decline.

To mitigate sample bias, the respondent set was normalized to reflect the age, gender, location and distribution of the general US population between the ages of 18 and 60. MyType's methodology is explained in detail in the full report.

Turnover Within the Tea Party

MyType’s survey data indicate that devoutly religious conservatives are the fastest growing segment within the Tea Party, a finding corroborated by a recent Public Research Institute poll. From early August to mid-October, Tea Party support among religious conservatives climbed from 47.4% to 58.5%, a relative increase of over 23%. During the same period, opposition among religious conservatives dropped from 9.9% to a negligible 0.5%.

Libertarian supporters, on the other hand, appear to be leaving the movement. Between late September and mid-October, support among libertarians dropped from 46.7% to 37.8%, a relative decline of over 19%. During the same period, opposition among libertarians climbed from 11.1% to 16.0%.

Tea Party Identity Crisis

It’s plausible that the rising prominence of religious conservatives in the Tea Party is driving libertarians away from the group. Though the two groups are demographically fairly similar, psychographically they are fundamentally different people, as detailed in the following table. Substantially more information about these two groups, including the numbers behind this table, is available in the full report.

This table highlights notable tendencies in the two groups of supporters, not exclusive definitions. For instance, while there are religious conservative supporters who are interested in science, on the whole this groups stands out for its high percentage of people interested in religion and family.

It seems unlikely that these distinct groups can remain united under one political banner. The rising prominence of religious conservatives and the decline of libertarians indicate a brewing identity crisis for the Tea Party. The movement began with the core libertarian values still listed on its official website: fiscal responsibility, constitutionally limited government, and free markets. Recently, however, prominent political candidates and public figures affiliated with the party have voiced support for key religious right issues, including speaking out against abortion and homosexuality, calling for a continued war on terror abroad, and questioning the separation of church and state. This is likely attracting the newer religious conservative supporters and driving away the party’s socially liberal libertarians, as well as others originally attracted to the movement for its focus on scaling back government. To the individuals leaving, the idea of involving government in moral prescription is likely perceived as expanding its influence, not scaling it back. Karl Denninger, widely credited as one of the founders of the Tea Party, may have become the spokesman of Tea Party defectors when he recently denounced the movement, saying it has been hijacked by people obsessed with “guns, gays and God”.

Given the religious conservatives’ relative strength in numbers, the current trend will likely continue. Already they comprise over 23.5% of Tea Party supporters, compared to 17.0% for libertarians. Libertarians and other proponents of small government type – no strings attached – may need to start another movement all over again.

For more information, see the full report.

Reprinted with permisson from MyType.

October 26, 2010

Copyright © 2010 MyType