Jim Rogers: Silver Rally Was a 'Gigantic Crazy
Spike,' Didn't Quite Reach Parabolic Status
global investor and chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings,
Jim Rogers hardly sees how silver could be a bubble when, even at
its top, it's still below its all-time high.
plunge in prices was good for the market especially for silver which
needed a set back and consolidation, according to Rogers who was
hoping prices would go down so he could buy some more.
Alix Steel in a TheStreet
interview, Rogers said: "When something goes up 25%-30% in
a month, that's something to worry about a great deal. I don't know
what caused it maybe it was short covering, maybe it was rumors.
I have no idea. I know that 25% in a month is dangerous".
went down a great deal but if you raise margin requirements 150%-200%
you would expect something to collapse," he added.
Asked if this
was a bubble that burst, Rogers said: "I hardly see how silver
could be a bubble when, even at its top, it's still below its all-time
high. That's not much of a bubble," adding a bubble is "when
things are screaming up every day and they go to new highs, two
to three times their old highs".
have a bubble, we'll have a bubble in commodities, we're not there
yet," he said.
silver futures plunged the most since at least 1983 after the Comex
exchange in New York boosted margin costs by 84%. The price rebounded
9.1% in the past two days. On April 25, the metal reached US$49.845,
the highest since the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market in
1980. In that year, the commodity climbed to a record US$50.35.
a third of its 30% plunge from end-April's 31-year high, hitting
US$39.18 per ounce at today's London Fix.
So was it a
sure I would call it parabolic, I would certainly call it a spike,
it didn't quite reach parabolic status in my view, but it certainly
was a gigantic crazy spike," Rogers told Steel.
still in an uptrend, despite the sharp sell-off" as shown by
an intermediate-term trend from the lows on August 24 and January
28," Mary Ann Bartels, the head of US technical and market
analysis at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, told Bloomberg
yesterday in a telephone interview. "The uptrend was not broken."
face so-called resistance around US$45 before topping US$50, a "very
important number" that "called the end of the bull market
in commodities, with the Hunt Brothers getting squeezed out of silver"
in 1980, Bartels said.
The metal may
rise to US$80 in three to five years, she said.
hoping it would go down so I could buy more", agrees Rogers.
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Rogers has taught finance at Columbia University's business school
and is a media commentator worldwide. He is the author of Adventure
Gift to My Children, and A
Bull in China. See his
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