Election 2012: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41%
Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President
Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race
is Ė virtually dead even.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely
voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul with 41% of the
vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and
six percent (6%) are undecided.
Ask the Political
Class, though, and itís a blowout. While 58% of Mainstream
voters favor Paul, 95% of the Political Class vote for Obama.
But Republican voters also have decidedly mixed feelings about
Paul, who has been an outspoken critic of the party establishment.
Obama earns 79% support from Democrats, but Paul gets just 66%
of GOP votes. Voters not affiliated with either major party give
Paul a 47% to 28% edge over the president.
Paul, a anti-big government libertarian who engenders unusually
strong feelings among his supporters, was an unsuccessful candidate
for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. But he continues
to have a solid following, especially in the growing Tea Party movement.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters now consider themselves
a part of the Tea Party movement, an eight-point increase from
month ago. Another 10% say they are not a part of the movement
but have close friends or family members who are.
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Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters have a favorable opinion
of Paul, while 30% view him unfavorably. This includes 10% with
a very favorable opinion and 12% with a very unfavorable one.
But nearly one-out-of-three voters (32%) are not sure what they
think of Paul.
Perhaps tellingly, just 42% of Republican voters have a favorable
view of him, including eight percent (8%) with a very favorable
opinion. By comparison, 42% of unaffiliated voters regard him
favorably, with 15% very favorable toward him.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of GOP voters think Paul shares the
values of most Republican voters throughout the nation, but
25% disagree. Forty-nine percent (49%) are not sure.
Similarly, 27% of Republicans see Paul as a divisive force in
the party, while 30% view him as a new direction for the GOP. Forty-two
percent (42%) arenít sure.
Among all voters, 19% say Paul shares the values of most Republican
voters, and 27% disagree. Fifty-four percent (54%) are undecided.
Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters nationwide regard Paul
as a divisive force in the GOP. Thirty-four percent (34%) say
he is representative of a new direction for the party. Forty-five
percent (45%) are not sure.
But itís important to note than 75% of Republicans voters believe
Republicans in Congress have lost
touch with GOP voters throughout the nation over the past several
Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska and the GOPís vice presidential
nominee in 2008, is another Republican who has been bucking the
partyís traditional leadership and was the keynote speaker at the
recent Tea Party convention in Nashville. Fifty-nine percent (59%)
of Republican voters say Palin
shares the values of most GOP voters throughout the nation.
Just 18% of Republicans see Palin as a divisive force within the
Rasmussen Reports released survey findings yesterday that
take a closer look at the political views of those who say theyíre
of the Tea Party movement. Among other things, 96% of those
in the movement think America is overtaxed, and 94% trust the
judgment of the American people more than that of Americaís
When it comes to major issues confronting the nation, 48%
of voters now say the average
Tea Party member is closer to their views than Obama is.
Forty-four percent (44%) hold the opposite view and believe
the presidentís views are closer to their own.
Fifty-two percent (52%) believe the average member of the
Tea Party movement has a better understanding of the
issues facing America today than the average member of Congress.
Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters now think Republicans and
Democrats are so much alike that an
entirely new political party is needed to represent the
American people. Nearly half (47%) of voters disagree and say
a new party is not needed
If the Tea Party was organized as a political party, 34% of voters
would prefer a Democrat in a three-way congressional race. In that
hypothetical match-up, the
Republican gets 27% of the vote with the Tea Party hopeful in third
at 21%. However, if only the Democrat or Republican had a real
chance to win, most of the Tea Party supporters would vote for the
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This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted
by Rasmussen Reports on April 1213, 2010. The margin of sampling
error for the survey is +/ 3 percentage points with a 95%
level of confidence (see
from Rasmussen Reports.