Supreme Court
nominations, congressional ethics scandals, and insider politics
dominated the Washington headlines in recent weeks. But perhaps
the most important story, in terms of its impact on average Americans,
has gone virtually unreported.
Later this
month our Treasury once again will hit the "debt ceiling,"
a figure based on federal law that limits the amount of money
the federal government can borrow. The total amount of federal
debt as of this month is a staggering $8.2 trillion, a number
that is almost incomprehensible. The effects of this debt, however,
will be felt by all of us in the form of inflation, higher interest
rates, and a weakened U.S. economy.
New Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a difficult dilemma. Our overseas
creditors, particularly Asian central banks, already hold billions
of U.S. dollars and are losing their appetite for lending us more
money. They are wary of our enormous federal deficits and reckless
economic policies. Ask yourself a simple question: would you loan
the U.S. government money, given its spending habits? It's clear
we can't go on borrowing $1.8 billion every day to finance the
government!
The simplest
way for the Fed to overcome these fears and maintain worldwide
enthusiasm for the dollar is to raise interest rates and stop
putting new dollars into circulation. But the Greenspan "boom"
was based on the opposite approach. By cutting interest rates
to the bone and vastly increasing the money supply, Greenspan
made Americans feel rich first with the stock market bubble
of the 1990s, and later with the housing bubble that is only now
starting to burst. Greenspan was brilliant at making debt feel
like wealth, but Mr. Bernanke inherits a very difficult situation.
To maintain the value of the dollar, he must put the brakes on
the money supply and raise the cost of borrowing. Such tough action
is unlikely, however, given Mr. Bernanke's troubling public statements
about the benefits of government printing presses.
For years
the Federal Reserve Bank and Congress have maintained a cozy relationship.
The Fed, by pumping more and more money into the economy, has
allowed Congress to spend wildly beyond the amount collected each
year by the Treasury. Congress loves deficit spending, because
new programs are always politically popular and tax hikes are
always unpopular. In return, Congress has maintained a completely
hands-off approach toward the Fed system, allowing Mr. Greenspan
free reign to "run the economy" with tremendous deference
from both the public and the press.
The results
are not pretty. True inflation, correctly measured by the amount
of money and credit available, has skyrocketed in the last 15
years. At the same time, federal deficits have exploded. Congress
is addicted to spending, and the Fed is happy to supply the fix
by providing easy money.
As economist
Addison Wiggin states, however, "The Grand Experiment with
paper money is running its inevitable course. Bernanke's biggest
challenge is the challenge of central banking itself: You can
control some things, but not everything. In the Fed's case, it
can control the quantity of money or the quality of it, but not
both at the same time."
All
of these factors make it likely the U.S. dollar will continue
to decline in value, perhaps precipitously, in the coming decade.
Will it take an economic depression before the American public
finally holds the political class accountable for its reckless
borrowing, spending, and counterfeiting?