The U.S. financial
system appears to be crumbling. Politicians and Washington bureaucrats
are scrambling to make it appear like they are actually doing something.
When politicians and Washington bureaucrats scramble, that means
that taxpayers will be getting screwed again. They are throwing
our money at mismanaged corporations and providing handouts to people
who thought they were going to get rich buying and selling houses.
The people who are getting screwed are the citizens who have lived
within their means, those who did not take unreasonable risks and
senior citizens who are now stuck with 1.5% interest rates on their
savings while inflation exceeds 8%. One of the largest mortgage
lenders in the country, IndyMac, has been taken over by the FDIC.
Some 10,000 people will lose $500 million that is not covered by
insurance. The FDIC estimates that this takeover will cost the American
people between $4 billion and $8 billion. If that is their estimate,
you can be sure the cost will exceed $20 billion.
Phil Gramm,
one of John McCain’s chief economic advisors and a chief architect
of deregulating the banking industry while a US Senator, has called
us a nation of whiners. This is a man who is currently the vice
chairman of UBS bank, making in excess of $500,000 per year in compensation.
I wouldn’t be whining if I made more money than 99.9% of all Americans
either. He has certainly earned that pay. His employer has written
off $37 billion of mortgage debt so far. Stockholders are probably
thrilled with his performance, as the stock has collapsed from $62
to $19 in the last year. Sounds like he is Treasury Secretary material
in a McCain administration.
Of course,
there are Democrats who are at least as financially illiterate as
Mr. Gramm. Senator Chris Dodd from Connecticut showed his financial
acumen when questioned about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "They
have more than adequate capital, in fact more than the law requires.
They have access to capital markets. They're in good shape. To suggest
somehow they're in major trouble is not accurate." Later that
day, Hank (Mr. Bailout) Paulson committed our tax dollars to save
these horribly run institutions. Fannie Mae has lost $7.7 billion
in the last 9 months. Freddie Mac has lost $5.2 billion in the last
9 months. They are leveraged 60 to 1. As the current housing crisis
continues to expand, these two companies will have to write off
billions more in loans and are effectively insolvent. Mr. Dodd is
lying to the American people because he doesn’t think we can handle
the truth. The taxpayer will again be responsible for bailing out
two of the worst run organizations on the planet. This bill will
be a whopper. Jim Rogers, famed investor, said, "They’re ruining
what has been one of the greatest economies in the world. Bernanke
and Paulson are bailing out their friends on Wall Street but there
are 300 million Americans that are going to have to pay for this."
Congress is
about to pass a bill (attempt to bribe potential voters) that will
throw billions of our tax dollars at banks, homebuilders, and reckless
homeowners. President Bush has threatened a veto, but will surely
buckle and sign the bill. This bill will shift greater responsibility
to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That is very comforting. Ron Paul
in mid-May described the situation in his usual straightforward
fashion:
"Lending
standards were relaxed, or even abandoned altogether, creating
an exaggerated pool of homebuyers that led to ballooning home
prices that many, especially real estate investors, expected to
continue forever. Now that the bubble has burst, the losses are
staggering."
"However,
many in Washington fail to realize it was government intervention
that brought on the current economic malaise in the first place.
The Federal Reserve’s artificially low interest rates created
the loose, easy credit that ignited a voracious appetite in the
banks for borrowers. People made these lending and buying decisions
based on market conditions that were wildly manipulated by government.
But part of sound financial management should be recognizing untenable
or falsified economic conditions and adjusting risk accordingly.
Many banks failed to do that and are now looking to taxpayers
to pick up the pieces. This is wrong-headed and unfair, but Congress
is attempting to do it anyway. These housing bills address the
crisis in exactly the wrong way, by seeking to hide the problem
with more disastrous government bail-outs and interventions."
Politicians
and pundits have been trying to place blame for the current crisis.
There is much to go around. Alan Greenspan enabled the bubble to
start with 1% interest rates. The government agencies, SEC and Treasury
vacated their regulatory responsibilities to the free market. Homeowners
believed that home prices would go up forever. Rating agencies sold
their souls by rating toxic waste as AAA credits. Poor people, who
had nothing to lose, accepted the free money being handed out by
banks. I think the majority of the blame should fall on the financial
institutions and their leaders who should have known better. What
they did constitutes fraud in my book. I think the following definition
fits what these institutions have done – Intentional misrepresentation
or concealment
of information
in order
to deceive or mislead. The MBA, Masters of the Universe running
the biggest financial institutions in the world created the playing
field that deceived stockholders, rating agencies, and ultimately
themselves. Now they beg for bailouts from the government.
I’ve selected
five companies that represent everything that is wrong with our
financial system. I could have picked another 25 companies, but
these five will do. It is ironic that Bear Stearns was profitable
right up to the day they were "saved" by JP Morgan. The
collapse of some of their hedge funds early in 2007 was the canary
in a coal mine for the coming financial meltdown. When you use tremendous
amounts of leverage it can really juice profits on the way up. But,
on the way down excessive leverage can put you out of business.
Half of Bear Stearns’ 14,000 employees have lost their jobs in the
last 6 months. Ben Bernanke was so worried by the potential collapse
of Bear Stearns that he guaranteed $30 billion of their toxic waste
mortgage debt. He did this with our tax dollars. The last Federal
Reserve Chairman with any guts, Paul Volcker, had this to say about
this intervention by Mr. Bernanke:
"The Federal
Reserve has judged it necessary to take actions that extend to
the very edge of its lawful and implied powers, transcending in
the process certain long-embedded central banking principles and
practices. What appears to be in substance a direct transfer of
mortgage and mortgage-backed securities of questionable pedigree
from an investment bank to the Federal Reserve seems to test the
time-honored central bank mantra in time of crisis: lend freely
at high rates against good collateral; test it to the point of
no return."
As you can
see in the following charts, these companies generated phenomenal
profits in 2005 and 2006. Of course, these profits were a fraud.
By taking on tremendous leverage and developing exotic derivative
instruments and selling them to people who didn’t understand the
risks but relied on the ratings provided by Moody’s and S&P,
these firms generated ungodly profits. The rating agencies made
millions giving AAA ratings to instruments they didn’t understand.
Everyone felt safe, because AMBAC and MBIA guaranteed many of these
sub-slime mortgage pools. The managements of these companies raked
in millions in salary, bonuses, and stock options. Stockholders
were happy because their stocks were going through the roof. Since
last summer, the billions in profits are being erased faster than
they were "created."
Company
2005 Profit
2006 Profit
2007 Profit
1st
Qtr 08
2nd
Qtr 08
Bear Stearns
$1.5
$2.1
$0.2
$0.1
N/A
Citicorp
$24.6
$21.5
$3.6
$5.1
$3.5
Merrill
Lynch
$5.0
$7.3
$8.0
$2.1
$3.0
Wachovia
$6.6
$7.8
$6.3
$0.7
$2.0
Countrywide
$2.5
$2.7
$0.7
$0.9
N/A
Toll Brothers
$0.8
$0.7
$0.0
$0.2
$0.1
AIG
$10.5
$14.0
$6.2
$7.8
$1.0
Source:
Yahoo Finance – figures in billions
The prestigious
CEO’s of these companies made a few bucks on the way up. All of
these CEO’s, excluding Bob Toll, have been "fired." When
a CEO gets fired these days they receive the greatest payday of
their privileged lives. Considering that the profits that their
companies generated were fraudulent, these criminals should be forced
to reimburse the stockholders. Instead they are at their private
golf clubs working on their handicaps.
Company
CEO
2005
Total Comp.
2006
Total Comp.
2007
Total Comp.
Bear Stearns
– James Cayne
$26.3
$40.0
$38.3
Citicorp
– Charles Prince
$13.0
$26.0
$135.5
Merrill
Lynch – Stanley O’Neill
$28.3
$46.0
$161.5
Wachovia
– Kennedy Thompson
$9.4
$12.7
$24.8
Countrywide
– Angelo Mozilo
$57.0
$69.0
$48.1
Toll Brothers
– Robert Toll
$50.2
$41.3
$8.4
AIG –
Martin Sullivan
$2.1
$11.0
$14.3
Source:
Forbes – figures in millions
So, these corporate
fat cats are set for life, but the stockholders have lost between
68% and 94% of their investment. The following quotes are examples
of their lying and manipulation of the public:
"When
the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated.
But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and
dance. We’re still dancing."
~ Charles Prince in July 2007 shortly before writing off billions
"We finished
the year positioned better than ever to capitalize on the array
of opportunities still emerging around the world as a result of
what we believe are fundamental and long-term changes in how the
global economy and capital markets are developing."
~
Stanley O’Neal in January 2007 – Merrill reported an $8 billion
loss in 2007
"But
as I do reflect on it, and I do a lot, that nobody saw
this coming. S&P and Moody's didn't see it coming,
but they simply just downgrade bonds, they don't take hits. Bear
Stearns certainly didn't see it coming. Merrill Lynch didn't see
it coming. Nobody saw this coming."
~ Angelo Mozilo in July 2007 while he was selling $138 million of
stock
"I’m
confident our company is in the right businesses for the long
term and that our strategy of being in high growth businesses
and markets, our laser focus on customer service, our expense
discipline, and our commitment to strong credit risk management,
will create value for our shareholders in the future."
~ Ken Thompson in October 2007 – he was ousted 6 months later
as his $26 billion acquisition of Golden West Financial imploded
Company
Stock Price High
Stock
Price 7/16/08
% Change
Bear Stearns
$171.5
Bought
at $10 by JPM
$0.9
Citigroup
$52.7
$16.5
$0.7
Merrill
Lynch
$94.5
$28.0
$0.7
Wachovia
$53.5
$10.5
$0.8
Countrywide
$43.0
Bought
at $4.73 by BOA
$0.9
Toll Brothers
$58.3
$18.5
$0.7
AIG
$73.5
$23.3
$0.7
Source:
Yahoo Finance
You can judge
whether these CEO’s were criminal or incompetent regarding the actions
they have taken in the last few years. At the end of the day, the
actions of these men and many others on Wall Street have led our
financial system to the brink of collapse. The people who have been
hurt by their actions are the thousands of employees getting laid
off, homeowners who followed the rules, and senior citizens trying
to live off CDs.
Ron Paul, in
his common sense rational way, explains the situation:
"The
net effect of all this new funding has been to pump hundreds of
billions of dollars into the financial system and bail out banks
whose poor decision making should have caused them to go out of
business. Instead of being forced to learn their lesson, these
poor-performing banks are being rewarded for their financial mismanagement,
and the ultimate cost of this bailout will fall on the American
taxpayers. Already this new money flowing into the system is spurring
talk of the next speculative bubble, possibly this time in commodities."
"Worst
of all, the Treasury Department has recently proposed that the
Federal Reserve, which was responsible for the housing bubble
and subprime crisis in the first place, be rewarded for all its
intervention by being turned into a super-regulator. The Treasury
foresees the Fed as the guarantor of market stability, with oversight
over any financial institution that could pose a threat to the
financial system. Rewarding poor-performing financial institutions
is bad enough, but rewarding the institution that enabled the
current economic crisis is unconscionable."
Don’t worry.
Your next rebate check will be in the mail shortly.
June
18, 2008
Jim
Quinn [send him mail]
is Senior Director of Strategic Planning, The Wharton School, University
of Pennsylvania.