The Worried Winner
or
Welcome to the First All-German Toad-Kissing Championship
by Ulrich Biele
by
Ulrich Biele
Three
weeks have passed by since the German federal elections (Bundestagswahlen),
but not until now we have got a clue who will try to govern Germany
for the next four years. On October 18 the Bundestag will elect
the new Chancellor and today it looked as if Angela Merkel (Christian
Democratic union) will lead a grand coalition containing her CDU,
the sister party Christian Social Union and her favorite foe, the
Social Democratic Party, which had been the senior partner in our
defeated administration under Gerhard Schröder. Nobody really
anticipated this outcome, but the deadlock of the election results
made it inevitable. All parties had been shelling out insults galore
during the electoral campaign, excluding exactly any cooperation
with the "foe", but they will have to get used to the
idea, that this "foe" is the partner they will have to
depend on for the next legislation period.
Our
former Foreign Secretary, Joseph "Joschka" Fischer (Green/Bündnis
90), who had made clear right after the election that he would not
participate in any subsequent administration, was the first loser.
Today, Gerhard Schröder had to admit that in Ms. Merkel’s cabinet
there would be no place for him. He is said to retire into a private
life, but he will keep his options open.
Angela
Merkel is not really happy with her victory, though. The price she
had to pay was another deadlock: her Christian Union(s) will be
awarded eight seats in her cabinet, but the Social Democrats will
get eight seats as well. This is a disaster waiting to happen. The
most important ministries will fall to her Christian Unions, but
those with social explosives will remain under SPD control. Neither
group can rule against the other, both have to compromise the essential
goals of their electoral campaigns in order to gain power. Any action
this cabinet can agree on will be that of the smallest denominator.
In other words, the change in policy our country needs so desperately,
will not happen, at least not within the next few years.
Our
welfare state is compiling deficits faster and faster, our social
security Ponzi scheme is bankrupt, our national debt is out of control,
we will not be able to meet the Maastricht Criteria for a stable
currency for the next twenty years at least, but neither Ms. Merkel
nor her cabinet will be able to stop or at least decelerate this
development.
All
we are going to get is a more expensive, more bureaucratic and more
invasive state, as one of the losers called it: a planned and organized
stagnation.
The
first grand coalition, Germany had between 1966 and 1969, broke
a deadlock the Christian Democratic Union had worked itself into.
The Kiesinger administration could lower labor costs, restore parts
of a market, break a recession and reduce national debt. This "Cabinet
of Abilities and Talents" work resulted in almost twenty years
of a recuperating economy, which not even the Social Democratic
chancellors Brandt and Schmidt could destroy. When Schmidt lost
his impetus, stagnation took over, personified by Helmut Kohl, and
it is going to last.
 To
break this stagnation is not an option Angela Merkel has. Her greatest
success will be to survive four years as the first female Bundeskanzler
without entirely destroying our country. Her latitude of leadership
can be measured in minutes of angle at best. She must be content
if her cat-herding talents might help her survive her term without
being completely paralyzed or back-stabbed, preferably by her best
friends. Real friends she has none, being an outsider from Eastern
Germany who has not gone through the regular channels in her party.
Her hour came when the former leaders of her party, including Chancellor
Kohl, were discredited by a vast and dirty corruption affair. Ms.
Merkel was smart enough to drop her friend and fatherly promoter
Kohl when his involvement in this affair became too obvious. She
could fill a gap, but she gained no friends – and that’s her
party. On the other side, in the ranks of the Social Democratic
Party, she can expect no sympathy at all. They really hate her guts.
Though the negotiations made the way clear for Angie’s chancellorship,
it is not guaranteed that on October 18, even all of her own party
members will vote for her, not to mention Social Democrats. I guess,
this is a stable and sound foundation for a long-term partnership....
October
12, 2005
Ulrich
Biele
[send him mail] is
a consultant in Munich, Germany.
Copyright
© 2005 LewRockwell.com
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