Few polls have shown Davis within spitting distance of surviving, although I'm waiting to see the ones released after a newspaper with an anti-Schwarzenegger bent mysteriously published the groping story right before the election.

Nevertheless, I'm going out on a limb and releasing my list of the Top 10 Stupidest Events of the recall before the election takes place:

1. Gray Davis' decision to run left.

I was convinced that, up until he gave his fateful "right-wing conspiracy" speech on Aug. 19, the gray governor could have beaten the odds and convinced Californians to keep him in office, despite the $38 billion deficit and his notorious mishandling (no handling, really) of the electricity crisis.

Mingling with the trial lawyers, public-employee union reps, Indian casinos and left-wing activists who keep his fund-raising machine well-oiled, Davis convinced himself that California's electorate is further to the left than it actually is. Yes, the state is heavily Democratic and the surging Latino population leans strongly in that direction, but most voters still eschew high taxes and left-wing activism.

Davis labeled the recall part of an "ongoing national effort to steal elections Republicans cannot win." This played to his base, but was an insult to everyone else. The defining moment of the leftward drift was his signing of legislation granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Even many Davis' supporters viewed it as pandering, given that Davis twice before rejected such a bill.

Had Davis really apologized, and gone back to the tried-and-true "man of the middle" formula that got him elected in the first place, he would be facing a better result on Tuesday.

2. Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's refusal to distance himself from MEChA, the Latino separatist group he belonged to as a student.

MEChA, which stands for Movimiento Estudiantil Chicano de Aztlan, has as its motto: "Por La Raza todo, Fuera de La Raza nada," which means "For the race everything, for those outside the race, nothing." It's hard to see that as anything but a racist slogan, especially given MEChA's call for a return of the American southwest to Mexico.

Bustamante could have been a stand-up guy and emphasized that his past association with such a group is in the past, that the group's motto and political platform is noxious, and that he eschews separatism and heartily endorses a colorblind society.

Instead Bustamante pandered, even during last week's debate in which he was given a perfect opportunity to repudiate the slogan. As a result, he permanently alienated much of the electorate, which in part explains his inability to rise much in the polls.

3. Bustamante's "tough love" plan for California.

What's so tough about promising interest groups every spending desire, then imposing the costs on taxpayers through at least $8 billion in tax increases? Bustamante's plan would undermine Proposition 13 protections for small business owners and would impose a socialized health-care system on California businesses at a time when the business climate is troubled. During the latest debate, he even said he would probably sign legislation letting local cities impose income taxes, confirming him as someone who will dramatically increase taxes on everyone.

4. Depiction by the liberal media of the recall as a circus.

There are so many examples from the East Coast and California also, but the theme was the same: Look at the crazy California voters throwing a hissy fit. Look at all the silly candidates who are running on themes such as legalizing ferrets and exempting lap dances from taxes. Ha, ha. Isn't this so funny? Yet these elites largely ignored the real frustrations that drove the recall. Yes, Republicans pushed it forward, but they would not have succeeded had Davis not been such a bumbler, and had the state's business climate, tax and regulatory climate, and political climate not gotten so bad.

5. The inability of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tom McClintock to cut a deal and present a unified front to the electorate.

Frankly, Schwarzenegger's unapproachable celebrity status and arrogance combined with McClintock's intractability almost botched (and still could botch) the entire recall effort. I think highly of both men and have been happy McClintock has been in the race to make clear limited-government arguments Schwarzenegger hasn't made. Still, there's time to fight and time to unify. I still think McClintock should be offered and should accept the role of finance director if Schwarzenegger wins.

6. Bustamante's Indian casino money gambit.

A few years ago, most Californians looked upon the tribes with sympathy and approved of their gambling plans to pull impoverished Indians out of poverty. By showering money on Bustamante, the tribes created a new, less-sympathetic image. And Bustamante's refusal to play by the rules - refusing to cancel Indian-sponsored ads in defiance of a judge's ruling - gave him the image of a corrupt pol, no better than Davis.

7. Insistence by leading Democrats and liberals that the state's business climate is good.

During the debate, Arianna Huffington, Peter Camejo and Cruz Bustamante pooh-poohed the arguments of Schwarzenegger and McClintock that the state's business climate is going south (east, actually!). Where have these people been? California has lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs in the past three years largely because of new taxes, regulations, expanding workers' compensation costs, and the sense that new onerous and costly bills (i.e., health insurance mandates) are coming down the pike.

New jobs have been created, but almost solely in the low-paid retail sector. California has gotten an F in business climate issues in new reports. Yes, Californians will pay more to live here, but at a certain point if a business can't make money it will go to friendlier business climates, even if the actual climate is ferocious (such as in Nevada and Arizona).

8. Schwarzenegger's refusal to embrace Proposition 54.

University of California Regent Ward Connerly's noble effort to restrict the collection by government of non-essential racial and ethnic data would help bring multi-cultural California beyond the politics of race and ethnicity. Austrian immigrant Schwarzenegger could have been a compelling voice for a colorblind society, but instead took the safe path and unfairly depicted the effort as divisive.

9. The three-judge panel's decision to delay the election.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, in a case brought by the American Civil Liberties Union and cheered by Davis supporters, reinvigorated the recall effort after an activist panel tried to circumvent the will of the people based on the shoddiest reasoning. Fortunately, the 11-member "en banc" panel reviewed and reversed the decision by a unanimous vote.

10. Davis' tripling of the vehicle license fee.

Talk about manna for Republicans. Although Davis claims, unbelievably, that the fee increase was tripled by a mechanism put in place by Gov. Pete Wilson, everyone knows it was Davis who sought a way to boost the tax without taking blame. It was emblematic of Davis' approach to governance - refusing to stand up for his principles, underhanded and obsessed with avoiding blame for any bad consequences.