Busted Europe, Busted Dream
by
Gary North
Recently
by Gary North: Gold
Confiscation: A Highly Unlikely Threat
The European
Monetary Union is going to break down. This will be followed by
a break-up of the European Union.
This is denied
by the New World Order's promoters of international unification.
They have been planning for this since the end of World War I. They
have been actively implementing this by stealth since the early
1950s. They used treaties to bring this political unification to
pass. They used economic unification as the bait. The hook of political
unification was always buried in the bait.
The threat
facing the NWO is that the economic bait has turned out to be poison.
The EMU is based on a common central bank and a common fiat currency.
But without a common system of government, there can be no fiscal
union. There can be no central planning by Keynesian means.
The nationalism
implied by Keynesian fiscal manipulation has led to the Greek crisis.
The EMU rested on an unlikely premise: the wisdom of Europe's commercial
bankers, who had spent their careers in highly regulated domestic
markets. Always before, bankers in large banks could count on their
national central banks to bail them out. But, in this new world
banking order, the European Central Bank does not have the flexibility
to bail out all of the large national banks that are now in big
trouble. There are members of the ECB's board who are part of the
German-Dutch axis, which favors tighter money and stable prices.
The Board must placate them to some degree. This reduces the ECB's
response time.
The Party
Line of the EU and the ECB is that there is no unity-threatening
problem or series of problems facing the central government. They
insist that the current problems are temporary.
We have heard
all this before.
THE
BREAKDOWN OF COMMUNISM
The greatest
event of my life was the suicide of the Soviet Union on December
31, 1991. The Communist empire went under without a shot being fired.
The Communist Party's senior officers looted the Party's funds and
sent the money to Swiss bank accounts. Then they privatized the
state's main economic assets so that they and their cronies became
incredibly rich.
The second
greatest event was the decision of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 to free
up Chinese agriculture. That led to the most rapid economic growth
in human history. Nothing like it had ever happened to so many people.
South Korea's per capita economic growth, 1950 to 1990, was greater,
but South Korea was a much smaller nation.
Communism was
the most powerful ideology of tyranny in man's history. It failed
operationally in the USSR in less than 75 years. It failed in Communist
China in less 30 years.
The cash nexus
seduced the vanguard of the proletariat. The inevitable socialist
victory was exposed as a gigantic fraud. The messianic religion
of Marxism went down with the two Communist ships.
Today, the
rag-tag army of tenured Marxist professors in Western universities
have as their only surviving models Cuba and North Korea. The
satellite photo of the two Koreas bright lights in the
south, one light in the north is the most powerful epitaph
of Communism there is.
Now another
victory of liberty over centralized politics is unfolding. It is
taking place in Western Europe. It is not going to be reversed.
The New World Order's number-one poster child the European
Union has begun to fall apart. Nothing will reverse this.
There are those
in the West who will deny this. There are also those who from 1992
until today insist that the collapse of the USSR was in fact a gigantic
deception. The Communists are still in control, they tell us. These
people cannot bring themselves to admit that Communism lost the
battle. Like the original Communists, they believe in the absolute
sovereignty of political power. They believe that the West could
not possibly have won, because the Communists were better at intrigue
and military power. But the West did win, because the Communist
leaders gave up the dream of a socialist world and decided to go
for the money.
Let me tell
you how I knew that the Communists had failed completely. First,
the new Russian government changed major cities' names back to their
pre-Bolshevik names. Leningrad became St. Petersburg. Stalin re-named
Volgagrad to Stalingrad in 1925. Khrushchev changed it back in 1961
as part of his de-Stalinization program. Both changes revealed the
nature of politics in Russia. The names of cities were testimonies
to the ruling power. That was why the name changes after 1991 were
significant.
Second, mobs
of people pulled down statues of Soviet leaders. One of the statues
that disappeared was that of Pavlik
Morozov, the 13-year-old boy who informed on his father. He
had been made a hero by Stalin after he was murdered at age 15.
He had the boy's relatives executed for the crime, although they
all denied that they had done it. The Morozov story was taught to
Soviet children until the very end of the regime. His statue has
disappeared from the public park built in his memory.
The fall of
the Soviet Union was no deception. It was real. That was two decades
ago.
There is another
fall coming.
BREAKDOWN
TO BREAK-UP
I will state
it again. The breakdown of the European Monetary Union will be followed
by the break-up of the European Union.
The EMS is
breaking down. A few columnists in the West are now admitting this.
On the whole, however, the Party Line of the media follows the Party
Line of the EU bureaucrats: "The crisis in Greece is a temporary
aberration. It will be solved by EU, IMF, and ECB policies."
The problem
with the Party Line is that Greece keeps flaring up. Short-term
interest rates are over 100%, indicating a loss of faith by investors
in the Greek government's ability to make interest payments in euros.
If the EU, the IMF, and the ECB had a plan to deal with the underlying
problem in Greece its looming inability to make interest
payments in euros they would have implemented it. They keep
announcing temporary bridge loans. These "bridge loans" are in fact
sinkhole loans. Everyone presumably knows this, yet they do not
invest accordingly. The various stock markets' wild gyrations in
Europe indicate that hope and fear are balanced, unlike any government's
budget.
Hope will degrade
into fear as reality sets in. What is reality? That large European
banks bought Greek government bonds, because they assumed that no
member of the EMU would pull out as a way to default on euro-based
debt. But it is clear that this is exactly what Greece will do.
The default is statistically inevitable. The sinkhole is a bottomless
pit.
The euro was
the poster child of European unification, just as European unification
was the NWO's poster child for worldwide unification, the dream
of the Trilateral Commission. The euro was rammed down the throats
of Europe's national central bankers in 1999. They had enjoyed considerable
autonomy. National politicians also resented the fact that they
would no longer have great influence in domestic monetary affairs.
They would henceforth have to persuade the bankers at the European
Central Bank to follow policies that would sustain national welfare
state policies.
That world
is gone, but there are domestic politicians in PIIGS nations who
would very much like to restore it. They are being pushed hard by
voters to break free of the "austerity" programs being rammed down
their throats by the IMF and ECB.
The Bible teaches,
"The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is the servant
to the lender" (Proverbs 22:7). This ticks off the borrowers. The
Bible also teaches, "The wicked borroweth and payeth not again"
(Psalms 37:21a). This really ticks off the borrowers. "That's an
insult to our integrity!" Then, when their governments announce
limited cutbacks in domestic spending, the threatened employees
take to the streets. "You owe us what you have promised!"
In short, voters
want to impose austerity on the creditors. They do not want creditors
to impose austerity on their welfare state governments.
Some interest
groups are going to get stiffed. The Party Line at the EU, ECB,
IMF is that employees of high-deficit countries are going to get
stiffed. The Party Line in the Greek trade unions is that the ECB,
IMF, EU bureaucrats are going to get stiffed. Politicians in PIIGS
nations claim that no one is going to get stiffed if the ECB, IMF,
and EU will just lend more money to tide them over. The commercial
bankers want the EU and ECB to serve as lenders of last resort to
banks, so that, when the PIIGS default, the bankers will not lose
their bonuses. Voters in Germany don't want to get stuck with the
tab for bailing out PIIGS or banks. Investors in European stocks
keep sounding like Rodney King. "Can't everyone just get along?"
The New World
Order's promoters are wringing their hands and pleading, "We worked
so hard to sneak through this deal. We are not quite finished with
our plans. Now voters are trying to kill it. It's just not fair!"
I think of a
classic video scene that best describes the present predicament
of the NWO.
THE
BEST-LAID PLANS
The
Wall Street Journal published a report on the breakdown
of the EMS. I liked the way it started out:
When
the history of the rise and fall of postwar Western Europe is someday
written, it will come in three volumes. Title them "Hard Facts,"
"Convenient Fictions" and the volume still being written
"Fraud."
The author
says that the first hard fact was military necessity in the post-War
period. The Cold War began.
The next hard
fact was hard money. He correctly identifies this as "the gift of
Ludwig Erhard, author of the economic reforms that created the Deutsche
mark, abolished price controls, and put inflation in check for generations."
Erhard was a disciple of Wilhelm Roepke, who was a disciple of Ludwig
von Mises. In mid-June, 1948, Erhard unilaterally abolished the
entire Allied military system of price controls, fiat money, and
rationing. The next day literally the "German economic
miracle" began.
The author
continues: "The third hard fact was the creation of Jean Monnet's
common market that gave Europe a shared economic not political
identity." The author has fallen for the ultimate fraud.
Monnet had been working for political unification ever since he
and Raymond Fosdick, John D. Rockefeller, Jr.'s agent, sat together
at the Versailles Peace Conference in 1919. In 1919, Fosdick sent
a letter to his wife. He told her that he and Monnet were working
daily to lay the foundations of "the framework of international
government." [July 31, 1919; in Fosdick, ed., Letters
on the League of Nations (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton
University Press, 1966), p. 18.] Fosdick returned to New York City
in 1920, where he took over running the Rockefeller Foundation for
the next 30 years.
Monnet was
the front man for the New World Order. He promoted political unification
by wrapping it in the swaddling clothes of economic unification.
The author
accurately describes the suicide of Western Europe.
In
1965, government spending as a percentage of GDP averaged 28% in
Western Europe. Today it hovers just under 50%. In 1965, the fertility
rate in Germany was a healthy 2.5 children per mother. Today it
is a catastrophic 1.35. During the postwar years, annual GDP growth
in Europe averaged 5.5%. After 1973, it rarely exceeded 2.3%. In
1973, Europeans worked 102 hours for every 100 worked by an American.
By 2004 they worked just 82 hours for every 100 American ones.
He argues that
"It was during this general slowdown that Europe entered the convenient
fiction phase." One fiction was that adding new members to the EU
would enable the European economy to rival the output of the United
States. Another fiction was that there was a central core of outlook
and values that would unify the new collective. Here, he is woefully
naive. That had been the assumption of the United Nations Organization
from the beginning, and the League of Nations before it. That was
the heart of Monnet's vision. It did not start in 1973.
And there
was, finally, the whopping fiction that Europe had its own "model,"
distinct and superior to the American one, that immunized it from
broader international currents: globalization, Islamism, demography.
Europeans love their holidays and thought they were entitled to
a long holiday from history as well.
He's got that
right!
Then he lists
the frauds. First, Greece was allowed into the European Monetary
Union. But that was not a fraud. The critics in the 1990s said that
all of the Club Med nations would run deficits. They warned that
the euro could not hold.
There was no
fraud involved in letting in the PIIGS. This was basic to Monnet's
vision from 1919. It had to work. It must work. It is ordained to
work. This is the NWO's religion.
The non-PIIGS
bankers thought it would work. They loaded up on PIIGS sovereign
debt.
This was not
fraud. This was the implementation of a deeply political religion.
This was self-deception on a continental scale.
Yet he is right
on this point.
There was
the fraud of the so-called Maastricht criteria the fiscal
rules that were supposed to govern the euro only to be quickly
flouted by France and Germany and then junked altogether in the
current crisis. There was the fraud of the European Constitution,
overwhelmingly rejected wherever a vote on it was permitted, only
to be revised and imposed by parliamentary fiat.
What is now
happening in Europe isn't so much a crisis as it is an exposure:
a Madoff-type event rather than a Lehman one. The shock is that
it's a shock. Greece was never going to be bailed out and will,
sooner or later, default. The banks holding Greek debt will, sooner
or later, be recapitalized. The recapitalization will be borne
by German taxpayers, and it will bring them sooner rather
than later to the outer limit of their forbearance. The
Chinese will not ride to the rescue: They know not to throw good
money after bad.
And then
Italy will go Greek. Europe's crisis will lap on U.S. shores,
and America's economic woes will lap on Europe's a two-way
tsunami.
He sees that
this fraud is not going to hold together. There is a reason for
this.
The
"fiscal union" that's being mooted will never come to pass: German
voters won't stand for it, and neither will any other country that
wants to retain fiscal independence which is to say, the
core attribute of democratic sovereignty.
He makes a
forecast: "What comes next is the explosion of the European project."
Then he makes an assessment: "Given what European leaders have made
of that project over the past 30-odd years, it's not an altogether
bad thing." I'll say not. It is a great thing. It is, in fact, the
greatest thing that is likely to happen in the first two decades
of the 21st century. It is the extension of the two break-ups of
the 20th century.
But it will
come at a massive cost. The riots of Athens will become those
of Milan, Madrid and Marseilles. Parties of the fringe will gain
greater sway. Border checkpoints will return. Currencies will
be resurrected, then devalued. Countries will choose decay over
reform. It's a long, likely parade of horribles.
CONCLUSION
The price of
the break-up of the ECB, the EMU, and the EU will be high because
of the frauds and convenient fictions that preceded them. If Europe's
voters had not created welfare states, if they had not consented
to a common fiat currency, but instead had abolished all central
banking and had allowed competing private currencies, and if they
had abolished tariffs and not created a bureaucratic monstrosity
of non-governmental agencies with the power of government
the WTO and its peers there would be low transition costs.
But they listened to Monnet. They will now pay the price.
So will all
of its trading partners. So will the large American banks that sold
credit default insurance to European banks.
September
24, 2011
Gary
North [send him mail]
is the author of Mises
on Money. Visit http://www.garynorth.com.
He is also the author of a free 20-volume series, An
Economic Commentary on the Bible.
Copyright ©
2011 Gary North
The
Best of Gary North
|