North Korea’s
“Dear Leader” must be sipping a glass of his favorite French
wine and having a good laugh as he observes the worldwide hysteria
he created by shooting off a tiny nuclear device.
For a dictator
who loves international attention and movie-making with equal
passion, what could be more satisfying than playing arch villains
in his own James Bond production while savoring the storm of
international hypocrisy and prefabricated outrage his less than
one kiloton nuclear test unleashed.
But keep
in mind, North Korea has done nothing illegal under international
law. It has every right to conduct underground nuclear tests.
India and Pakistan did so in 1998. Today, the US is supplying
India with nuclear fuel and technology that allows Delhi to
divert scarce nuclear fuel to its military reactors and upgrade
its strategic weapons.
The United
States, Britain, France, Russia, and China have all violated
the basic international law on nuclear power, the 1968 Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT). Article IV of the treaty mandates
“complete nuclear disarmament under strict and effective international
control.”
That was
38 years ago. Today, these nations have 30,000 nuclear weapons.
The United States and Russia hold the lion’s share. None of
the treaty signatories have abandoned nuclear weapons. The US
is currently updating and refreshing its nuclear arsenal and
developing deep-penetrating weapons.
In 1953,
America’s greatest modern president, Dwight Eisenhower, launched
his Atoms for Peace initiative. He called for total international
nuclear disarmament, including the entire US nuclear arsenal.
Subsequent administrations ignored Eisenhower’s sensible proposal.
The only
two nations to have actually scrapped their nuclear arsenals
have been South Africa and Ukraine.
The US,
France, Russia, and China also violated Article I of the treaty,
which bans transfer of nuclear technology. The US gave nuclear
know-how to Britain. France supplied Israel with nuclear technology.
Russia gave it to China, and China shared technology with Pakistan.
Israel, which refused to sign the NNPT, supplied extensive nuclear
technology to South Africa and, more recently, to India.
Those nations
screaming the loudest about North Korea and Iran barging into
the restricted nuclear club are also the nations with the biggest
stocks of nuclear weapons themselves. Israel warns it is prepared
to go to war to defend its Mideast nuclear monopoly.
The US
has nuclear weapons based in South Korea, probably in Okinawa,
at Guam, and with its 7th Fleet in the Pacific. South
Korea has twice been caught with covert nuclear weapons programs.
Japan can assemble nuclear weapons on 90 days notice. Taiwan
has long run a covert nuclear program.
China,
not wanting to be caught offside in the world uproar against
the Dear Leader, began perfunctory inspections of trucks headed
into North Korea. China is the sole source of North Korea’s
oil and supplies most of its imported foodstuffs.
Beijing
is clearly deeply confused by its eccentric Korean ally, and
furious at him for provoking the current uproar and making China’s
leadership lose face. But it does not want to see Kim’s Stalinist
regime collapse, and has so far refused to join an international
naval blockade. So for now, China is playing good cop/bad cop.
The US-led
UN embargo against North Korea cuts off tanks, military equipment,
and aircraft. But North Korea has a lot of these, however outdated,
and can’t afford any more. Following its official philosophy
of “juche,” North Korea has become nearly self-sufficient except
for oil, and can survive for a long time under blockade. About
85% of its imports come by truck and train from China.
Provided
China does not cut off oil to North Korea, the most painful
part of the embargo may be the cruel denial of luxury goods
to the Dear Leader – a ban on his favorite fine French wines,
cigarettes, and chocolates. No doubt, Kim’s cellar was amply
stocked in anticipation of such ruthless punishment.
None of
North Korea’s other neighbors want Kim’s regime to collapse
either. North Korea’s implosion would produce 20 million of
starving refugees that would flood into South Korea, China and
Japan, as well as possible civil war, and certainly chaos.
So
China, South Korea, and Russia may be content to slap Kim’s
hands for daring to detonate a nuclear device or two that everyone
knew he had but preferred to pretend he did not.
Behind
all this cynical farce lies a serious danger. Forced inspections
of North Korean ships could spark a military clash between the
US and North Korea or, worse, between the US and China.
Both
besieged North Korea and the sinking Bush Administration are
desperate and dangerously trigger-happy these days.
Asians
fear the US may do to North Korea what it did to Iraq overthrow
a nasty but effective government and replace it by chaos. Better
the Kim you know…