PARIS –
Pipsqueak Georgia’s harebrained and disastrous attack on tiny
South Ossetia has produced a full-blown crisis pitting the US
and NATO against Russia.
In an act
fraught with danger, US and NATO warships are delivering supplies
to Georgia, watched by Russian men of war. The US Congress may
soon vote $1 billion for America’s embattled Georgian satellite.
The western
powers have resorted to fierce Cold War rhetoric. They are playing
with fire. Russia has some 6,600 strategic nuclear weapons,
mostly aimed at North America and Europe. Besides, the US, which
invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, and whose air force just killed
90 Afghan civilians, 60 of them children, is in no position
to lecture Moscow about aggression.
France’s
conservative president, Nicholas Sarkozy, blasted Russia and
will shortly hold a European summit over Georgia in Brussels.
As usual, the Harper government faithfully echoed Washington’s
words.
Poland
agreed to emplace a US antiballistic missile system only 184
km from Russia’s border, provoking Moscow’s fury. Ukraine and
Poland are loudly backing Georgia.
Russia’s
chief of staff, Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, warns his nation has the
right to launch a "preemptive nuclear strike" against
enemies, in line, he tartly noted, with the Bush administration’s
own policies.
Topping
off this war of words, two of Sen. John McCain’s closet rightwing
allies, senators Joseph Lieberman and Lindsay Graham, went to
Georgia and called for "tough" measures against Moscow.
They urged isolating Russia for "aggression" and admitting
Ukraine and Georgia to NATO.
McCain’s
allies give a good preview of what his foreign policy would
look like. Lieberman and Graham, leading proponents of the US
occupation of Iraq, had the chutzpah to insist, "Russia
must not be allowed to control energy supplies."
This ugly
mess recalls how the great powers blundered into both World
War I and II over obscure locales like Bosnia-Herzegovina and
the Danzig Corridor. The obvious lesson: act with extreme caution.
But few are listening as rhetoric sharpens.
The Bush
administration – most likely VP Dick Cheney – almost certainly
planned or knew about Georgia’s attack on Russian-backed South
Ossetia launched under cover of the Beijing Olympics. Whether
the White House was trying to inflict a quick little military
victory over Moscow, or whipping up war fever at home to boost
John McCain’s prospects, is uncertain.
This crisis
over a mere 70,000 South Ossetians and 18,000 Abkhazians could
have been quietly resolved by diplomacy. Instead, the Bush administration
turned it into a major confrontation by accusing Russia of aggression.
Washington, which rightly recognized the independence of Kosovo’s
Albanians from Serb repression, denounced Russia’s recognition
of Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence from Georgian repression.
Meanwhile, Moscow, which crushed the life out of Chechnya’s
independence movement, piously claimed to be defending Ossetian
independence.
Things
may get worse. The US is pressing Ukraine to join NATO, though
half of its 48 million citizens oppose doing so. Ukraine’s constitution
mandates a neutral state. Russia allowed Ukraine to decamp from
the Soviet Union with the understanding it would never join
NATO, and allow Russia’s Black Sea Fleet operate from Crimea.
Russian
political expert Sergei Markov rightly notes that Washington
and NATO see Ukraine as a rich new source of troops for Iraq
and Afghanistan, wars from which he says NATO leaders cannot
withdraw their soldiers without committing "political suicide."
"Old
Europe" is trying to avoid a clash with Moscow, while "new
Europe" – Georgia, Poland, the Czechs, and Balts – frightened
of Russia’s growing power, eggs on the US-Russia confrontation.
Not
only did the clumsy US attempt to expand its influence into
Moscow’s backyard backfire badly, Washington’s childish, petulant
response is as inflammatory as it is powerless. The Georgian
crisis and empty threats against Russia have aroused strong
nationalist passions in Russia, which sees itself increasingly
isolated and surrounded by the US and NATO.
Nationalist
hysteria, jingoism, and fevered rhetoric are coming from both
sides. We saw such lunacy before: in August 1914, and September
1939.