What that poll means

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National Review wonders about the meaning of the poll that has Hillary at 48 versus Ron Paul’s 38.

The meaning is clear: Ron Paul can beat Hillary!

I said in February that Ron starts out with 45% against Hillary. That poll has him at 44% right now if we assume the undecided’s break the same way. But of course, that never happens. The undecided’s always break for the challenger. So 48-38 really translates into about 50-50.

In my view, it will tougher for Ron to win the nomination that it will be for him to beat Hillary. I see him winning 52-48 in November.

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I’m also a contrarian on the nomination. I believe it will come down to Ron Paul, John McCain and Fred Thompson.

4:46 pm on October 30, 2007