Here are the early states listed in order of Ron Paul’s probability of winning, based on the leader’s average poll number measured against Ron Paul’s highest number for that state. Like cross-country, the smaller the number the better.
South Carolina–8.5
Michigan–14
Nevada–17.8
Iowa–20.5
New Hampshire–24.9
Source: Pollster.com
Based solely on existing poll numbers, South Carolina and Michigan are clearly winnable. If he wins those two and runs well in the other three, he’s the presumptive nominee or, at worst, in the race to the end.
Having fought my daily fight against the cynics, pessimists and naysayers, I will return to the day job.
7:56 am on December 14, 2007
