A group of so-called financial wizards have declared that the recession will be over in less than a year and that unemployment will peak at about 10 percent:
The recession has affected every region of the country and nearly every sector of the economy, said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Economy.com, which conducts independent research and provides economic forecasts.
“It’s really unprecedented in the U.S. to have nearly the entire country in a recession simultaneously,” he said.
The good news is there’s an end in sight.
The economy will pull out of the recession at the end of this year, marking a duration of 24 months, about twice as long as the average post-World War II recession, Faucher said.
The unemployment rate is expected to peak at nearly 10 percent in the first half of 2010. Without the $787 billion government stimulus package, he estimated job losses would have continued into the second half of the year and peaked at about 12 percent.
“That would take what is now a severe recession and actually turn it into a deep depression,” he said. “We think the fiscal stimulus package is vital in turning around attitudes toward the economy.”
This falls into the “Yeah, right,” category. It also demonstrates the total ignorance that dominates the so-called macroeconomics field. These people are clueless as to what is happening, as though there is no currency crisis on the horizon.
In other words, it is business as usual with our so-called wizards. I remember some of those “wizards” laughing at Peter Schiff. Well, Schiff and Ron Paul are much more on the mark than the typical “professional” macro crowd.2:33 pm on March 26, 2009 Email Bill Anderson