Has McCain clinched?

It has been widely reported, reported as a fact, that John McCain has clinched the nomination.

Now, maybe so, but the MSM has been wrong so many times this year that forgive me if I don’t accept what they say on faith. Where’s the evidence?

Delegate selection rules are arcane and not meant to be understood by mere mortals but let’s look at the numbers.

According to CNN, McCain has 714 delegates and needs 1191. Thus, he needs 477 more. There are about 1142 left. Thus, he needs 42% of them to win.

Though he is certainly probably going to be the nominee (barring an unforeseen scandal, verbal gaffe, or health emergency!), to say that he is “going to be the nominee” is erroneous. We know no such thing.

Romney “suspended” his campaign and apparently and this is all very fuzzy wuzzy, his delegates must still vote for him on the first ballot. If all of his delegates were released and if all of them went for McCain on the first ballot, this analysis would be different. But has that been reported? If so, I missed it. Keep in mind that Romney and McCain hate each other.

We know Huckster is in McCain’s hip pocket but technically, this stalking horse remains in the race and his tiny pool of delegates remains bound to vote for the stand-up comic on the first ballot.

Now you can say, Jim, McCain will “definitely get 42% of the remaining delegates.” That assumes that the future will be like the past. Sometimes it is; sometimes it isn’t. Given the winner-take-all rules of some states, a slight change of fortune could mean a shutout for the man who has all but promised a war against Iran if elected.

I am not going to go through all the factors that argue for a sudden lessening of support for this sure loser in November. Oops! I just let one slip.

Update: McCain loses Kansas!

Share

8:06 am on February 9, 2008