Chutzpah, Thy Name Is Krugman

Ah, Monday morning! Time for the latest outrage from Paul Krugman, and he does not disappoint. However, this is a most unusual column today, as he starts out correctly (you’d think Peter Schiff had written his opening paragraphs), and then slinks back into Krugmanisms.

First, he correctly points out that most of the “wealth accumulation” in this country since 2001 (convenient, since it leaves out the inflation of the Clinton years) has been a mirage. Yes, he says that Americans have not saved enough and have borrowed too much! Krugman says that!!

But, as they say on the Ginsu Knives commercials, “Wait! There’s more!” Part II utterly contradicts Part I, or perhaps we can say that there are two Krugmans in this latest column.He writes:

At one level this should come as no surprise. For most of the last decade America was a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers. The personal savings rate dropped from 9 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the 1990s, to just 0.6 percent from 2005 to 2007, and household debt grew much faster than personal income. Why should we have expected our net worth to go up?

Yet until very recently Americans believed they were getting richer, because they received statements saying that their houses and stock portfolios were appreciating in value faster than their debts were increasing. And if the belief of many Americans that they could count on capital gains forever sounds naïve, it’s worth remembering just how many influential voices — notably in right-leaning publications like The Wall Street Journal, Forbes and National Review — promoted that belief, and ridiculed those who worried about low savings and high levels of debt.

Then reality struck, and it turned out that the worriers had been right all along. The surge in asset values had been an illusion — but the surge in debt had been all too real.

What! Has our anti-hero suddenly become converted to Austrian Economics and the Gospel of Peter Schiff? Alas, it ain’t so. For we find that the “solution” to all this is…inflation! Yes, read on (and weep):

And as the great American economist Irving Fisher pointed out in the 1930s, the things people and companies do when they realize they have too much debt tend to be self-defeating when everyone tries to do them at the same time. Attempts to sell assets and pay off debt deepen the plunge in asset prices, further reducing net worth. Attempts to save more translate into a collapse of consumer demand, deepening the economic slump.

Are policy makers ready to do what it takes to break this vicious circle? In principle, yes. Government officials understand the issue: we need to “contain what is a very damaging and potentially deflationary spiral,” says Lawrence Summers, a top Obama economic adviser.

In practice, however, the policies currently on offer don’t look adequate to the challenge. The fiscal stimulus plan, while it will certainly help, probably won’t do more than mitigate the economic side effects of debt deflation. And the much-awaited announcement of the bank rescue plan left everyone confused rather than reassured.

There’s hope that the bank rescue will eventually turn into something stronger. It has been interesting to watch the idea of temporary bank nationalization move from the fringe to mainstream acceptance, with even Republicans like Senator Lindsey Graham conceding that it may be necessary. But even if we eventually do what’s needed on the bank front, that will solve only part of the problem.

If you want to see what it really takes to boot the economy out of a debt trap, look at the large public works program, otherwise known as World War II, that ended the Great Depression. The war didn’t just lead to full employment. It also led to rapidly rising incomes and substantial inflation, all with virtually no borrowing by the private sector. By 1945 the government’s debt had soared, but the ratio of private-sector debt to G.D.P. was only half what it had been in 1940. And this low level of private debt helped set the stage for the great postwar boom.

Yes, war really is “the answer.” I think that Bob Higgs just might be a bit more knowledgeable on the post-war period. Yeah, you thought Krugman might make some sense! Think again.

Share

7:37 am on February 16, 2009