Brokered GOP Convention Likely

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Most of the Morons in the MSM appear ignorant of primary rules for various states. They will go on about Giuliani “winning” Florida and Huckabee “winning” South Carolina. They appear to be uninformed.

Most large states conduct “mini-primaries” in each Congressional Distict. For example, California is winner-take-all by district, so there are essentially 53 separate primaries. It is probable that 4-6 GOP candidates will win districts in California, resulting in a mixed distribution.

Here is the allocation method for the remaining primaries (I am excluding caucuses because the distribution is more fluid and complex):

Winner-take-all statewide (GOP): Arizona, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

Winner-take-all by Congressional District (GOP): California, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, West Virginia.

States that have primaries that give delegates to second- or third-place winners by Congressional District and Statewide: Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Texas.

States that have primaries that give delegates to second- or third-place winners Statewide only: Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Dakota.

If you look at the leaders in the various states, you will see that there is a good chance of a pretty even distribution of delegates. In addition, a significant number of delegates are “superdelegates,” (the Dems’ term) who are chosen by virtue of their positions, regardless of who they are. It is hard to see how any of them can get 50% before the end of the primaries. This would result in either a brokered convention or a pre-convention deal (like McCain and Huckabee teaming up for a ticket).

You can check out each state’s rules here.
and they have it by major event chronologically.

3:08 pm on January 9, 2008
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