Breaking Down the Latest NH Poll for Ron Paul

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With Ron Paul now regularly polling 8% in New Hampshire, it is interesting to note some of the details of the recent polls.

The Fox News poll that was released this morning has some very intersting cross-tab data. In this poll, RP gets 8% of all likely GOP primary voters.

RP supporters are the most hard-core. Of the voters who are “certain to support” their candidate, RP gets 13%, moving ahead of Huckabee. He only gets 2% of voters who said they “may change mind.” When asked who voters would choose as their second choice, RP gets under 1%. 88% of RP supporters are “certain to support,” a higher percentage than any other candidate.

RP gets increased support from voters who choose Iraq, health care, the economy, and social issues as their top issue, but lags among voters who choose immigration or taxes.

Interestingly, RP gets 10% of those who identify as pro-choice, and only 5% of those who identify as pro-life. I believe that is because RP is identified with the idea that one owns one’s body, and not with restrictions by government.

RP only gets 1% of those who strongly support Bush, and 15% of those who disapprove of Bush. RP gets only 4% of registered Republicans versus 14% of independents (NH allows independents to vote in either party’s primary).

RP gets 12% of male voters, and only 4% of female voters.

In a post several weeks ago, I noted that RP does best among self-identified liberals, those who choose Iraq as the most important issue, and those who don’t identify as Christians.

2:55 pm on December 14, 2007
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