I’m moving from being a “moderate” on polls to being a skeptic. Oddly enough, that happens while Ron Paul is rising in the polls. But the more I think about it, the more I think the polls understate his support even now.
I believe polls probably accurately measure support among those dwindling number of people who still answer the phone for “800” calls, in other words, don’t have caller ID. The Ostrowski’s came late to the caller ID thing so I have a good perspective on this. Since we got caller ID, even though we’re dinosaurs with a land line, we never answer telemarketing-type calls.
Ron’s supporters tend to be younger, judging from attendance at his events. Obviously, many or most of them don’t have a land line.
So, I think it’s pretty clear that the polls understate his support. It would be pure guesswork to say how much, but 50% might a good working hypothesis.
The other thing about polls is that they are less important than they used to be. The ability of a poll to predict the outcome of an election well in advance is a function of the rapidity of the transmission of information about the campaign. Obviously, information can now be transmitted to over half the electorate within minutes. In the 80’s Mario Cuomo could overcome a ten point deficit against Ed Koch and then Lew Lehrman in one week. Now, that same margin can be overcome in one day.
Polls are still interesting but are a lot less important that they used to be in predicting election results. The dinosaurs in the MSM don’t understand that yet.
9:03 am on November 14, 2007
