Everyone seems very happy that Abu Museb Al-Zarqaawi, the alleged and self-proclaimed leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, was killed in the U.S. missile strike sometime Wednesday. National Public Radio made this the big news of the morning, interviewing many Iraqis and Arab newspaper editors and generally trying to hype this a some great and potentially war-changing victory.
Here’s what we can probably expect from the whole thing:
1) The Iraqi resistance, both domestic Sunni and the foreign Islamists, will continue their attacks unabated. Al-Zarqaawi was not so much the brains of the outfit as he was the spokesman. A truly centralized resistance would have been taken down long ago. The Iraqis fighting US and Iraqi government troops are decentralized enough to survive this. (Say, wasn’t the capture of Saddam in late 2003 supposed to end the resistance too?)
2) While some tactics may change (the NPR report harped repeatedly on how unpopular the carbomb targeting non-combatants is among Iraqis), don’t count on it. Bombs will still hit Baghdad, and Iraqis will still die.
3) Roadside bombs will continue to target US soldiers too. Resistance fighters will still battle Americans, who will continue to be wounded and die in Iraq. American soldiers and Marines will still kill Iraqis, too, both combatants and non-combatants. There have been many more Haditha massacres, and there will continue to be many more too.
So, in short, very little will change. But hey, Bush Jong Il will celebrate this as a great victory, with a speech and everything, and all the pro-war types will too, so why shouldn’t you? Mark June 7 as V-Z Day, and kiss your favorite girl in Times Square!
6:17 am on June 8, 2006
