In recent days,
we've had two reports on timing, when it comes to the future of
the President's "surge" plan for Baghdad. According to Richard
A. Oppel of the New York Times, "The plan, which calls
for 17,000 additional troops in Baghdad, will continue until at
least this fall, the second-ranking commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen.
Raymond T. Odierno, told CNN on Wednesday. ‘I don't want to put
an exact time on it, but a minimum of six to nine months.'" On the
other hand, Simon Tisdale of the
British Guardian reports that the new military "brain
trust," headed by Lt. General David H. Petraeus, which has just
surged into Baghdad's Green Zone, is operating on a more truncated
schedule. Petraeus's men, who believe themselves to be working with
too little of everything, especially boots on the ground
since the Iraqi government has once again not
delivered its promised full contingents have "concluded
the US has six months to win the war in Iraq or face a Vietnam-style
collapse in political and public support that could force the military
into a hasty retreat."
Give me a
buck for every predicted six-to-nine month window of opportunity
from the military or the White House in the last four years and
I'd be rich as Croesus. Amid the hopeless chaos of Iraq, you can
already hear various individuals preparing their exculpatory "exit
strategies" from this war. So many key players are going to stab
one another in the back with their various explanations for failure
in the coming years that blood will run between the pages of the
many memoirs still to be published.
Of course,
for the neocons, the Bush White House, the Vice President and his
crew, and various military and intelligence types, the real villains
will not, in the end, be themselves. Count on this: The "weak-willed"
American people will take the brunt of the official blame (with
the "liberal" media, Democratic and Republican politicians who opposed
the war, and the antiwar movement, as well as the incompetence of
anyone but the speaker of the moment, thrown in for good measure).
As Ira Chernus
points out below, we've heard this tune before and once upon
a time, in the post-Vietnam years, it ended up playing us for a
long, long while. The question is: Will history repeat itself in
the wake of an American defeat in the Middle East?
Here's the
money paragraph in the Tisdale piece, which should have a Surgeon
General's warning attached to it:
"Possibly
the biggest longer-term concern of Gen Petraeus's team is that political
will in Washington may collapse just as the military is on the point
of making a decisive counter-insurgency breakthrough. According
to a senior administration official, speaking this week, this is
precisely what happened in the final year of the Vietnam war."
Mom, I tell
you that fish I had hooked was at least as long as the boat and
I was just bringing it in when you made me come home… ~ Tom
Will We
Suffer from the Iraq Syndrome?: Beware of the Boomerang
By Ira Chernus
The Iraq syndrome
is headed our way. Perhaps it's already here.
A clear and
growing majority of Americans now tell pollsters that that the 2003
invasion of Iraq was a mistake, that it's a bad idea to "surge"
more troops into Baghdad, that we need a definite timeline for removing
all our troops.
The nation
seems to be remembering a lesson of the Vietnam War: We can't get
security by sending military power abroad. Every time we try to
control another country by force of arms, we only end up more troubled
and less secure.
But the Iraq
syndrome is a two-edged sword, and there is no telling which way
it will cut in the end.
Remember the
"Vietnam syndrome," which made its appearance soon after the actual
war ended in defeat. It did restrain our appetite for military interventions
overseas but only briefly. By the late 1970s, it had already
begun to boomerang. Conservatives denounced the syndrome as evidence
of a paralyzing, Vietnam-induced surrender to national weakness.
Their cries of alarm stimulated broad public support for an endless
military build-up and, of course, yet more imperial interventions.
The very idea
of such a "syndrome" implied that what the Vietnam War had devastated
was not so much the Vietnamese or their ruined land as the traumatized
American psyche. As a concept, it served to mask, if not obliterate,
many of the realities of the actual war. It also suggested that
there was something pathological in a post-war fear of taking our
arms and aims abroad, that America had indeed become (in Richard
Nixon's famous phrase) a "pitiful, helpless giant," a basket case.
Ronald Reagan
played all these notes skillfully enough to become president. The
desire to "cure" the Vietnam syndrome became a springboard to unabashed,
militant nationalism and a broad rightward turn in the nation's
life.
Iraq
both the war and the "syndrome" to come could easily evoke
a similar set of urges: to evade a painful reality and ignore the
lessons it should teach us. The thought that Americans are simply
a collective neurotic head-case when it comes to the use of force
could help sow similar seeds of insecurity that might after
a pause again push our politics and culture back to a glorification
of military power and imperial intervention as instruments of choice
for seeking "security."
Ambivalence
in the Land
In current
polling data about the war in Iraq, there are obvious reasons for
hope, but also less noticed warning signs. In
a PIPA poll of December 2006, for instance, three-quarters of
the public favored "withdrawing almost all U.S. troops by early
2008," and fully 62% of Republicans agreed. Even
in the south, 64% of Americans now disapprove of Bush's "handling"
of the war. A recent USA
Today poll finds 60% against sending more troops to Iraq.
But the exact same number wants Congress to fund those new troops
they don't approve of dispatching Iraq-wards.
In that USA
Today poll, a remarkable 63% of Americans favor "a time-table for
withdrawing all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of next year,"
putting them way ahead of the Democratic Party Washington consensus
on what to do. Yet in a Washington
Post/ABC poll released this week, while 64% say the war
in Iraq was not worth fighting, only 45% want to set a deadline
of all U.S. troops out within a year, and only the same minority
number would move to reduce funding for the war. The latest CBS
News poll reveals that over 70% of Americans believe the situation
is now going "badly." But fully half say the U.S. is still "likely
to succeed in Iraq," and 43% do not want U.S. troops in Iraq removed
or even reduced now. A new AP/Ipsos
poll asks people what words they'd use for their feelings about
the war. While 81% are "worried," 51% remain "hopeful." (That poll
also asks how many Iraqi civilians have died in nearly four years
of war. The median "best guess" is a woefully uninformed 9,890.)
Beneath the
ever-shifting polling figures, the only constant is an ambivalence
which haunts the land. Politicians, legendary for leading from the
rear, are waiting to see which way any coming gale might blow. While
many now follow their constituents and speak out against the war,
most of them are carefully positioning themselves to go with the
flow of a militaristic backlash, should it emerge.
And history
tells us a backlash is a real possibility. Just as in the early
stages of the Vietnam War, a large majority of Americans were not
opposed to the Iraqi intervention or the occupation that followed.
When Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown, some three-quarters
of the U.S. public approved George W. Bush's war.
With Iraq,
as with Vietnam, the nation did not go sour on the venture until
it became frustratingly clear that the United States could not win
and American deaths began to rise. Bush's
ratings have fallen steadily not because he took us into war
under false pretenses, but because he failed to deliver the expected
triumph. Going to war without winning just doesn't fit our national
self-image, what Tom Engelhardt has called our "victory
culture."
Victory culture
assumes that the United States is bound to win in the end
that, in fact, we deserve to win because our motives are less self-interested
than those of other nations. We may sometimes fight a war ineptly
or incompetently, but we always mean well at heart. We want democracy,
prosperity, peace, and stability not just for ourselves but
for everyone.
And in victory
culture, we kill only because others are out to ambush and kill
us. We are by definition the victims, the innocents, never the perpetrators.
That whitewashes our motives, whatever they may actually be.
To go on believing
that we are virtuous, we must go on seeing ourselves as profoundly
insecure, as beset by enemies, as invariably simply defending ourselves
out there on the planetary frontiers of an aggressive, dangerous
world; out there on what the
President referring to remote regions of Pakistan
called "wild country; this is wilder than the Wild West."
The stories
the Bush administration has been spinning in these years to justify
its war, and possibly a future assault on Iran as well, are built
on the twin pillars of virtue and insecurity. While the war in Iraq
itself is, by now, widely rejected, the basic plot outline embedded
in the President's stories remains largely intact. In the mainstream
media, and around the country, questions about Iraq are still framed
within the narrative of a grand, though badly executed, project
to bring democracy and stability to a benighted land (and of the
Iraqis' inability to grasp our gift of democracy or an American
naiveté in believing an Arab land could possibly be ready for such
a gift). The news stories and political debate in Washington are
still all about the U.S. somehow being responsible for protecting
the Iraqis from chaos (even if it's chaos we've in fact created).
They're about fulfilling a responsibility, finishing what we started,
not to speak of the unquestioned need to go to distant places to
protect our own homeland from the ever-present threat of terrorism.
There's good
reason to see this whole line of thinking as bogus, but thoughtful
analysts who explain
why can barely get their voices heard, much less be taken seriously.
Identity
Crisis in a Losing War
By now, in
the midst of policy and military disaster, victory culture has narrowed
to "supporting our troops." Congress cannot defund the war because
lawmakers fear the ultimate charge of betrayal, a Congressional
"stab in the back" for failing to "support our troops." The obvious
logical response "The best way to support our troops is to
bring them home to their loved ones" doesn't cut it in today's
political climate. With not a shred of victory in sight, "our troops"
have become the prime symbol of both American virtue and insecurity,
the prime reason to stay in Iraq now that every other publicly ballyhooed
reason has disappeared.
That's an
old story. Ever since the Minutemen, soldiers have often been iconic
emblems of everything that was imagined as pure, innocent, and vulnerable
about America. There's even a history of portraying the American
fighting man as a Christ-figure a staple of Vietnam movies
from Sgt. Elias in Platoon to Rambo.
Now, who can
deny that our "kids" in Iraq are, by and large, decent and well-meaning
or that they face terrible risks daily? They are the constant heroes
in stories of virtue, innocence, and insecurity that fill the media,
stories usually detached from any political context, as if Iraq
were merely a stage without much scenery and lacking all plot on
which "our troops" continuously perform their heroic, sometimes
almost mythic, deeds. And those media stories make the image of
a virtuous, innocent, and insecure America eminently believable
but only so long as our troops are deployed in harm's way.
For the broad
center of the American public, "supporting our troops" also means
supporting some version, however attenuated, of victory culture.
By now, vast numbers of Americans realize that we'll surely win
no real victory in Iraq. Who is even sure what winning there might
mean? But whatever our stumbles, our war stories are supposed to
have some kind of happy ending. Every generation sent to war is
supposed to be "the greatest."
The ambivalence
lurking in the polls suggests that many Americans want it both ways.
The war should end quickly, but somehow with victory culture if
not still burning brightly, at least flickering, as our birthright
as Americans demands.
Awash in all
this ambiguity, the broad political center is in a terrible bind
when it comes to policy choices. A prompt phased withdrawal offers
the promise of something like the formula that Richard Nixon offered
in the 1968 election campaign (but never intended to deliver): "peace
with honor" in other words, something, anything, that might
be packaged as less than a defeat.
It would,
however, be hard to avoid seeing any kind of withdrawal from Iraq
as a retreat under fire, as a quitting of the field of battle, as
an admission that the U.S. cannot always save faraway people in
faraway places. That, too, would call into question all the traditional
stories that are still so widely seen as the bulwark of American
identity.
When a whole
nation has to cope with an identity crisis, when it has to struggle
to believe in narratives that were once self-evidently meaningful,
there is no telling what might happen.
There's already
a hot debate a blame game brewing about "who lost
Iraq?" The public may well put the blame on the Bush administration,
or even on the whole idea of aggressive war as the royal path to
domestic security, especially since Iraq can't be easily written
off as a one-time disaster. It is the second massive U.S. failure
in war in a generation. And it's a lot harder to put two failures
behind you. So there is real reason to hope that Americans won't
be fooled again, that this fiasco will breed a deep and enduring
resistance to the use of military force abroad.
On the other
hand, the very fact that Iraq is a second humiliation may make it
all the more urgent for many Americans to put it behind them, to
deny the painful reality. The frustration over not getting the ending
we deserve remains palpable. And it's only likely to rise as the
situation worsens. So the public could in the post-war years just
as easily put the blame where Ronald Reagan put it after Vietnam
on "the purveyors of weakness" (oppositional, incompetent,
or micromanaging politicians and bureaucrats, the media, the antiwar
movement) and turn back to the Reaganite (and neoconservative)
mantra of "peace and security through strength."
Then we'll
be told that Iraq, too, was just an aberration, a well-intentioned
war handled with a staggering level of incompetence that simply
got out of control. Those who don't want to repeat the experience,
who prefer to try other paths to global security, will be told they
are infected with the Iraq syndrome. And the prescription for a
cure will inevitably be military buildup, imperial war, and, of
course, the possibility of both "kicking" the Iraq syndrome and
welcoming our troops home in the sort of triumph they so richly
deserve.
Put the history
of the Vietnam syndrome together with the enduring appeal of America's
victory culture, and it's easy to see how the Iraq syndrome could
boomerang, too. Boomerangs can easily catch you unaware and give
you quite a smack. When one might be coming up behind you, it pays
to stay very alert.