How Iran Could Whip the United States and Israel Without Firing
a Single Shot
by Mark R. Crovelli
by Mark R. Crovelli: If
Mitt Romney Is So 'Electable,' Then Why Didnít Republicans Nominate
To the outside
observer, the intensifying conflict between the United States, Israel
and Iran (along with some lesser bellicose nations, like Britain)
may appear like a classic "prisonerís
dilemma." The best option for both sides seems to be to
their domestic constituencies by escalating the conflict, which
will ensure the worst possible outcome. The Israeli right-wing government
is seemingly beholden to its extremist
voting blocs, while the American government is seemingly fenced
in by the Israel
lobby, neoconservative candidates vying for the imperial throne,
the US empire and merchants of death, and the Israeli government
itself. Meanwhile, the semi-totalitarian Iranian government is seemingly
obliged to "stand up" to the aggressive Americans and
their "Zionist client state," lest it be seen as "soft"
or "weak" by its own citizens.
As in a classic
prisonerís dilemma, both sides are ostensibly ensuring the worst
possible outcome by focusing on their own domestic political agendas
at the expense of the bigger picture and saner solutions.
If this conflict
did indeed represent a classic prisonerís dilemma, we would have
little reason to think that the conflict will not worsen dramatically
in the future. We would have to assume that both sides would continue
to escalate the conflict to a point from which it would be completely
impossible to pull back. World
War III would be virtually assured.
however, the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran
is not a prisonerís dilemma situation, because the Iranians hold
a trump card that they can eventually use to unequivocally "win"
the conflict. The trump card that the Iranians hold, and one prays
that they are aware that they hold this card, is to completely dump
their nuclear program.
guffaw or snort at this suggestion, recall that this conflict between
the Americans and Israelis on the one hand and the Iranians on the
other is not about nuclear power or nuclear weapons. As
the American intelligence agencies and the American government itself
have assured us, to say nothing of the IAEAís
redundant assurances, there is absolutely no evidence that
the Iranians are currently attempting to build or acquire nuclear
weapons. Nor is the Iranian government an "existential
threat" to Israel even if it did acquire nuclear weapons, as
even the head
former head of the Mossad has assured us. Nor still is there
any need for the United States to aid in the defense of Israel,
Netanyahu himself informed the American congress.
this in mind, the conflict between the United States, Israel and
Iran has absolutely nothing to do with nuclear power or nuclear
weapons. Instead, the pointless conflict is all about cold, hard
political power in the Middle East, with the Israelis hoping to
secure a vice-like grip on the region.
government itself is surely aware of this, and you can bet your
last dollar that the Iranian people are aware of it too. The media
in Iran is run by the government, which means that the government
has undoubtedly informed the Iranian people that it is complying
with IAEA regulations and that even the American intelligence agencies
say that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
the Iranian people doubt the sincerity of the Iranian governmentís
pleas of innocence, when even the IAEA and American intelligence
agencies assure them that the Iranian government is not pursuing
nuclear weapons? More importantly, why should the rest of the Islamic
world doubt the sincerity of the Iranian governmentís pleas of innocence,
when even the IAEA and American intelligence agencies assure them
that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons?
is that they have absolutely no reason to doubt the Iranian governmentís
sincerity, and therein lies Iranís trump card in this conflict.
The Iranian government will not lose face with the rest of the
Islamic world if it decides to terminate its nuclear program completely,
as Israel and Washington demand, and diffuse the entire situation.
Obama and Netenyahu would be so caught off guard by such a move
that peace would be virtually assured, and the reputation of the
Iranian government would be magnified a thousand fold in the region.
The Iranian government would be viewed as a sane, peaceful and,
most importantly, trustworthy government by the rest of the Islamic
toppling their regional rival, the Israelis would find themselves
confronting a newly lionized giant. Forget the Arab Spring of 2011;
the Iranian Spring of 2012 would transform the world.
Americans and their European underlings would have little reason
to continue their unjust and bellicose sanctions if the Iranians
did precisely what was demanded of them. Continuation of the sanctions
would only appear to be unjust and Iraq-like meddling in the Islamic
world in the arrogant hope of "regime change" for Washington
and Tel Avivís benefit. The reversal of sanctions, on the other
hand, would almost instantaneously revive Iranís economy, as petrodollars
once again flooded the economy. Hillary Clinton and her chickenhawk
confreres would no doubt still whine that the Iranians donít "recognize"
Israel, (as if it matters to the nuclear-armed Israelis whether
another country "recognizes" them, whatever that even
means), but poor Hillary would be at a complete loss as to what
else to do.
For the sake
of the entire world, especially including the hapless citizens if
Iran, Israel, and the United States, one can only pray that the
Iranians are politically savvy enough to recognize that they can
win this conflict without even firing a shot. They donít need to
shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and they donít need to fire a single
Silkworm missile at an American aircraft carrier. All they need
to do is shut down their nuclear programs in toto, and they will
emerge from this conflict as the dominant and respected regional
power of the Middle East.
they will thereby avert World War III and the spilling of much innocent
Crovelli [send him mail]
writes from Denver, Colorado.
© 2012 by LewRockwell.com. Permission to reprint in whole or in
part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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