The Most Likely SHTF Event
Recently by M.D. Creekmore: What You Should Know About Selecting Guns For Your Bug Out Bag
As a group, we survivalist/preppers don't always agree and that is a good thing. The occasional disagreement on the how to and what if's increase our chance of survival, because it gets everyone involved thinking and looking at their preps and making adjustments if needed.
Over the past few month's, we have had several such thought-provoking debates here on The Survivalist Blog — three come to mind, "What Do You Do When You're Given The Deadline For Teotwawki?" "TEOTWAWKI: Vote Yes or No This Week Only" and recently "The Most Probable Ending " by Chris F.
After posting Chris's article, I was bombarded with email from readers giving their thoughts on the possibility of War on US Soil. Many said there wasn't a chance in hell while others agreed with his theories, and while China probably won't be invading our shore next week (but who knows what could happen) one thing is certain his post stirred up debate.
Many of the emails asked what I thought was the most likely trigger event — or the most likely reason for needing to break into our food storage and go into survival mode. This is a complicated question, with many variables and lacking an accurate crystal ball all such predictions amount to nothing more than an educated guess on anyone's part.
But here we go — what do I think is the most likely events that would send us into survival mode…
1. Personal disaster: Disasters on a personal level are common and can happen at anytime, often without warning. I'm sure nearly every one of you have lived through (or you could be experiencing it now) such an event. For TS to HTF it doesn't have to be an all out Mad Max event, it can be something as common as job loss, sudden disability, divorce etc.
Having your preps in order can make the difference between being forced to live a miserable existence while hiding in a cardboard box and eating three-day old dumpster divings from behind McDonald's or continuing a normal existence.
2. Natural disaster: Natural disasters are a common occurrence especially in coastal areas where the devastation from hurricanes, floods, cyclones and tidal waves can be tremendous. And trends indicate such disasters are on the increase. From tornadoes and snow storms to an eruption of yellow stone natural disasters happen often.
3. Economic collapse: We can all agree that the U.S. economy has seen better days, what we can't seem to agree on is the depth of the crash or how long it will last. According to U.S. National Debt Clock the current U.S. debt stands at $13,619,660,456,633.58 with an estimated population of 309,291,949 each citizen's share of this debt stands at $44,034.97. You do the math.
From wikipedia.org "In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is very high or "out of control", a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money that is not supported by a corresponding growth in the output of goods and services."
Contrary to what the feds seems to think, you can't keep "growing the money" supply without having anything solid to back it up without the eventual consequences of hyperinflation leading to an economic depression or possible economic collapse. Using the printing press to make more money is not a solution to not having enough money to cover obligations.
If you've read the book, "The Empire of Debt" then you know where the U.S. is headed financially and I think there is no turning back.
4. Pandemic: This one keeps me up at night and according to Scott Santibanez of the CDC it's not a matter of if a pandemic will hit but when. Santibanez said a pandemic typically occurs three times each century. The most deadly influenza pandemic in the 20th century occurred in 1918, which killed as many as 50 million people worldwide. Pandemics also occurred in 1957 and 1968. "We know there's going to be another pandemic at some point, just because cyclically that's the way it happens," Santibanez said.
There you have it — my four most likely events that will send us into survival mode.
What do you think is the most likely SHTF event? Let us know in the comments on my website.
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October 18, 2010
M.D. Creekmore [send him mail] is a full-time blogger and preparedness consultant. He currently lives completely off-grid somewhere in the Appalachian mountains and is currently working on his upcoming book The Dirt Cheap Survival Retreat for Paladin Press. To connect with M.D. Creekmore please visit his Survival Blog.
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