November 24, 2009

Government Accounting

A NYT article yesterday about US debt has some illuminating graphics. Particularly, it shows the White House's projections of debt (increasing rapidly then leveling off to near WWII levels) and interest payments (skyrocketing with no end in sight). The footnote to these projections is my favorite, though:

Assumes gross domestic product grows by 2 percent in 2010, 3.8 percent in 2011 and more than 4 percent from 2012 to 2014. Also assumes the unemployment rate begins to decline in the middle of 2010 and that inflation is about 2 percent from 2012 to 2014.

That's quite a reflation of the bubble that the White House is projecting and, even granting that the reflation is somehow done without causing price inflation, (correct me if I'm wrong) official inflation (CPI) has not been 2% for 3 years in a row in a very long time, so it's absurd by the state's own measures.

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