October 1, 2008

Will any financial scheme work?

I read of many good-hearted suggestions of what to do to stop the bear markets that are occurring in stocks, homes, real estate, and various debt securities. These markets are all experiencing serious price declines.

All that Congress is attempting in saving Fannie and Freddie and in looking at the Paulson-Bernanke bailout bill is to stop these bear markets and shift the losses from one set of people (the investors) to another (the tax payers.)

These efforts are totally doomed. None will work. All will make matters worse. The amounts of money involved in these investments gone bad (be they stocks, homes, mortgage debt, complex securities, etc.) are many, many trillions of dollars. Neither the government nor the tax payers can handle these amounts.

And they cannot stop prices from falling. All they can do is shift losses. These losses WILL be realized.

In my opinion, there is no government measure that can succeed, and every government measure you can think of will make matters worse.

The problems are too large. The mortgages issued run into many trillions. The problems are also not clear as to what they even are. There are too many interests. It is impossible to keep up a market when prices are falling. A government cannot even do it. Trying just weakens the system even more. The government already blundered by saving Fannie and Freddie.

There are losses in the system, and those losses will have to be realized. Let it happen. All the rest is an attempt to shift the losses to someone else who is not responsible for them. That can only cause harm.

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