It is that time of year when people look into crystal balls to make stimulating and entertaining predictions. I call them high-variance predictions, because they are often very wide of the mark but sometimes uncannily hit on things that happen that go against the conventional wisdom. My predictions are based on intuition with nothing to back them up but the judgment and guesswork of my years. I hope that these predictions are wrong.

1. We'll see a stream of horrid legislation come out of this Congress, worse than anyone now imagines. The new laws will negatively shock the economy and drive markets lower because the markets are not predicting this, inasmuch as bad legislation is not the standard by-the-numbers kind of prediction. With the kind of leadership that exists in Congress such as Pelosi and now with Obama's support, we can see passed such measures as the Global Poverty Act of 2007. But I have in mind even worse things, like provisions here and there that throw monkey wrenches into many key markets. There may be some slight signs of economic recovery ahead, but they will be swamped by the new measures. It will take time for people to realize the negatives coming out of Washington, and they may at first greet them with approval.

2. Obama is too young and immature and lacks the wisdom to face the problems that will cross his desk. We could have done better with a man of 60-70 who knows something, as wisdom comes with age, but none came up in the two major parties except Ron Paul, and he lost. The result will be similar to when Kennedy, who was also green, took office: unintended consequences of rash acts.

3. Obama will divide the races more. I am a contrarian in the stock market, and so this prediction comes natural to me since it goes against the conventional wisdom. He will favor minorities and that will stick in the craw of many whites who will become alienated. His policies will arouse old race hatreds. He is in a position (like Nixon going to China) to do the opposite and cut back on welfare and various aid boondoggles, but he'll do the opposite.

4. Obama is a closet totalitarian. Bush was more open about his. If he does not move to become Amerika's first Emperor, he will still make efforts in that direction. He will spring a political surprise or two in the direction of augmenting presidential power or using the power that Bush has laid up in waiting for any president to use. Truman seized the steel mills. Kennedy spoke against the steel executives. Obama will come up with something on that order at a minimum. His nice guy exterior is a ruse. The unity talk is soft soap so that he can get his way. But the trigger need not be hidden personality traits. It can be the very bad economy.

I fear and distrust this administration as much as I did the previous one, even more because the previous one built a basis of extended powers for this one to use. Also, Obama has mob adulation behind him and that is dangerous.

I hope I am completely wrong. I pray for Obama and his associates to act with wisdom, deliberation, and in the best interests of all the American people.