I really don't think it's going to be that close. For one, the polling data does not reflect the severely-depressed GOP turnout that we'll see in the fall, the anti-GOP sentiment, the energized democratic base, or the massive black voter turnout we'll see if Obama is the nominee. The Obama camp has said that their strategy is to capitalize on the resurgence of the party in the Mountain West to capture the presidency. If the '04 map stays the same, Obama wins if he turns CO, NM, and NV -- all close in '04 and all of them are far more blue in 2008. If Obama "goes west", he will focus his message to woo mountain state libertarians, probably more numerous in the belt that runs from Montana to the Mexican border than anywhere else in the country. He will probably pledge to protect gun ownership rights, offer a payroll tax cut with part of the money saved from ending the war, promise wind and solar energy tax credits (solar for AZ, CO, and NM, wind for CO, WY, and MT), and reluctantly support oil shale production as long as the energy companies (1) find their own water source and (2) are fully liable for any environmental damage; McCain's immigration policies will also severely depress the turnout of usually-reliable GOP voters in the region as well. Outside of the Mountain West, there's no way the GOP will win another squeaker in Iowa, nor will they edge out the Dems in Missouri, which has been blue-ing as well. Throw in a possible win in Virginia or even a Deep South state (especially in Georgia if Barr is running), and you have a democratic landslide. On top of that, the temporary lull in violence that the surge facilitated is collapsing rapidly, and McCain is wedded to that policy more than any other American politician, including Bush.
What you reap is what you sow, and 7 years of Red State Fascism will come back to bite them in November; It could get ugly...
