One of my perpetual critics assured me that he is certain there will be no Iran War after I had informed him that the odds against it had changed dramatically from 9-1 to 3-1 on Fallon’s resignation. I sent him a one-word message: Bet.
But, as Lee Strasberg said, that’s small potatoes. Today, the odds jumped to 1-1, which is the level of last November. The effect of the NIE Report is entirely gone.
The Iran War oil premium was estimated at $6-$10 at that time. That premium has probably been built back in now, accounting for some of the recent strength in oil prices.
I believe that we are already in the early stages of a major bear market in stocks that will rival the 1929-32 bear market, because the excesses requiring liquidation are at least as large as at that juncture. The daily financial revelations are stunning. We already have the eventual makings of a Dow-Jones Industrial Average at the 4500-5000 level. A war with Iran may speed up its attainment.
