Here are some quick thoughts.
My optimism about Ron Paul was based on my view that he would start out with a base of about ten percent, the soft libertarian vote. In a sharply divided field with an extremely mediocre group of rivals, it seemed possible that if he caught fire, he could get to the mere 25-30 percent he needed to win some early primaries. Then, anything could happen.
Actually, that base projection was not far off. Leaving aside caucuses, he did get 8% in New Hampshire and even at a later date he got nearly 7% in NY!
In caucus states, he has in fact done very well and that’s no surprise. His caucus numbers are: 17, 8, 16, 25 (2nd), 21, 10, and 10: average–15! The media of course has ignored those strong performances.
But leaving caucuses aside, Ron has not done well in primaries. He has not broken into double digits. Why?
First, there has been a nearly-total media blackout since about three days before the Iowa Caucuses. Ron did get some press before that but it suddenly stopped. Most voters tune in a few days before the election so it appeared to the causal voter than he wasn
