I’m not so sure, but a recent AP story states that “some” republicans are bracing for a 1st-place finish by Paul in Nevada:
By contrast, Republican candidates have stayed away from the diverse electorate and unfamiliar electoral landscape as Nevada voters weigh in earlier than ever before.
No major GOP candidate has set foot in the state for two months, and some Republicans are bracing for a possible surprise first-place showing by long-shot Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the only Republican to broadcast TV ads in Nevada.
Although Paul as at 9% in the latest ARG poll in nevada, a statistical tie for third pace, the AP is raising the bar as high as possibly can for Paul in Nevada — they wouldn’t want a top 3 finish in NV to be seen as a success. Now, the MSM can dismiss a 2nd or 3rd place finish by Paul in NV as a “suprising disappointment”, not a “surprising showing”. I, for one, doubt there are “some” republicans who are bracing for a possible 1st-place Paul finish, because if there was, the AP could have easily ran an anonymous quote. I’m not trying to be negative (I’m actually encouraged by our positive momentum in the polls), but we shouldn’t be setting ourselves up for disappointment — we already did that in Iowa and New Hampshire.
I am optimistic, however: Paul has a lot of support in Nevada (4th-highest donors per capita), and if we apply his 24:1 voter-to-Q4 donor ratio for the first three primaries, Paul should get somewhere around 25,000 votes in Nevada. Although some may dispute voter:donor ratios as irrelevant, if the combined voter:Q4 donor ratio of Iowa and New Hampshire were combined and applied to Michigan (30,120/1386 = 21.73), we would expect Paul to receive 46,480 votes in Michigan — he got ~54,000. That’s 17% more than projected, but that’s far better than the polls in Michigan.
Adjusted for undecideds, uncommiteds, and Hunter supporters in the final RCP poll and the final results, Romney recevied 19% higher than expected, Thompson received 34% lower than expected, Giuliani received 41% lower than expected, and Huckabee received 12% lower than expected. Paul received 3.5% less than expected, and McCain received 0.25% higher than expected. With only two data points (IA and NH), the voter:donor projections compare pretty favorably, and will only improve with more data. And since low turnout is expected in Nevada, Paul could do very well.
