The SF Chronicle has obtained a private poll conducted by democrats.
On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain leads the California pack with 18 percentage points; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee now in second place with 15, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has sunk to third place with 14. Here’s the shocker: former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani — once the frontrunner here — shows up with 12 percentage points, with Fred Thompson, the former Tennesee Senator, back in single digits with 9 points, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul in 5 percent. Undecided GOP voters are a huge number — 24 percent.
“I’ve never seen anything like this” so close to a major election, said the strategist. ”This is a fight to the finish…it tells me that not only is the Republican field extremely unsettled, but many Republicans find this entire crop of candidates unsettling.”
Although the high number of undecideds is interesting, a statewide poll in California is almost irrelevant. The Cali primary is 53 little primaries in a politically-segregated state. What goes in Nancy Pelosi’s district will no go in Orange County. On top of that, Bush’s policies are wildly unpopular in California with only 56% of registered republicans in California approving of his job performance (it’s at 74% in the “Live Free — or Die!” State). Playing up your fondness for the regime will not go over well here…
