Zogby just released the last tracking poll for New Hampshire, and has Paul, Huck, and Benito tied at about 9-10%:

McCain – 36%
Romney – 27%
Huckabee – 10%
Giuliani – 9%
Paul – 9%
Thompson – 2%
Hunter – 1%
Undecided – 5%

McCain opens up his lead, though Romney had a good day. But the 3-day average favors McCain. He leads big among Independents, though Paul is beginning to draw some of the Indies’ support and is now polling double digits again in the North – taking votes away from McCain. Paul does very well among 18-29 year olds. McCain also leads among Republicans, men and women, Moderates, and Conservatives. Again, a good day for Romney, but will he have enough time?

Firebrand Republican Congressman Ron Paul, the only GOP presidential candidate opposing the war in Iraq, also made big gains in the closing day of the campaign before the primary election. In both the Republican and Democratic races, five percent of likely voters said they remained undecided about whom they would support.

This is pretty much what I expect: A McCain-Romney race , followed by a three-way toss-up for third place. At the top of the race, Paul clearly benefits if Romney somehow beats McCain: it keeps him [Romney]in the race and the NeoCon vote fractured; I presume Romney’s support would go to McCain and Giuliani if he dropped out. In addition, a Romney victory would prevent McCain from being anointed as “inevitable”. Paul’s slowly-but-steadily increasing support needs time, and the longer the GOP race remains fractued, the better for Paul.

Let’s just hope that independents on the fence between Paul and Obama break republican and those independents on the fence between McCain and Obama break democratic. This could happen, with Paul retaining the support of a small, hardcore group of independents while a larger number soft independents (the type of uninformed voter that would be torn between a faux-independent NeoCon like McCain and a Great Society leftist like Obama) supporters will flock to Obama; if this were to occur, we would see Romney beat McCain, and Paul beat Huck and Giuliani — at least that’s my hope.